Bitcoin Sentiment Turns Bearish, but 2026 Outlook Stays Constructive

Recent sessions have been defined by heightened volatility, weak confidence across risk assets, and lingering macro uncertainty, all of which have weighed on short-term price action. Despite this, several analysts argue that the broader structure still points to a bottoming process rather than the start of a prolonged bear phase.

April Lows Swept as Volume Spikes Signal Potential Capitulation

According to crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin recently swept the April lows, triggering a sharp increase in trading volume. Historically, such volume spikes during downside moves often indicate forced selling and local capitulation rather than sustained distribution. Van de Poppe also noted that the US government shutdown ended shortly after the sweep, helping remove a key source of macro-driven risk sentiment.

From a market structure perspective, he expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the current range, potentially forming a higher low. If that scenario plays out, he sees scope for a rebound toward the $82,000–$84,000 area, even as sentiment remains cautious in the near term.

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Downside Risk, but Not a Structural Breakdown

While price action hints at stabilization, on-chain data presents a more complex picture. The Cap Loss Ratio – which compares Bitcoin’s realized capitalization to its market capitalization – has historically marked periods of true capitulation when the entire network falls deeply underwater.

In prior cycles, the metric peaked above 0.5 in 2015, around 0.4 during the 2018–2019 bear market, and near 0.3 in 2022. Each cycle has shown diminishing severity, reflecting a maturing market structure. If that trend holds, final capitulation in the current cycle could emerge closer to the 0.1–0.2 range. At present, the metric has not yet reached those levels, implying that further downside cannot be fully ruled out.

Why the Long-Term Outlook Remains Constructive for 2026

Despite lingering downside risk, history suggests that these transitional phases often coincide with long-term accumulation rather than trend failure. Previous cycles show that the most pessimistic sentiment frequently appears well before the next expansion phase becomes visible in price.

With structural adoption trends intact and macro conditions likely to evolve over the coming quarters, analysts increasingly view the current environment as a late-stage bearish phase. While short-term volatility may persist, the broader setup continues to support an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin into 2026, even as today’s market mood remains uneasy.

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