ARB Weekly Analysis Feb 4

ARB closed the week with a 2.64% decline, testing critical support levels within the main downtrend; oversold momentum signals increase accumulation phase potential, while BTC’s bearish structure mandates a cautious approach for altcoins.

Weekly Market Summary for ARB

ARB is trading at the 0.13$ level with a weekly 2.64% loss, stuck in the 0.12$-0.14$ range. Market volume remained limited at 189.82M$, while RSI at 24.25 points to the oversold zone. The main trend continues downward, positioned below EMA20 (0.16$), giving short-term bearish signals. In the macro context, BTC’s downtrend creates additional pressure for Layer-2 tokens like ARB. For more detailed spot data, check the ARB detailed spot analysis page.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Market structure shows ARB remains in a long-term downtrend. On higher timeframes (weekly and monthly), lower highs and lower lows formation is clearly observed, confirming distribution phase dominance. Although the MACD histogram is narrowing in the negative zone indicating momentum loss, the trend filter remains bearish, and reversal should not be expected unless 0.17$ resistance is broken. For portfolio managers, this structure supports short positions on a monthly horizon, while any macro cycle change (e.g., post-BTC halving rally) should be monitored. ARB’s overall cycle position has been in correction phase since the 2021 peak; bottom tests are critical for accumulation.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

According to volume profile analysis, distribution patterns have dominated in recent weeks: high-volume sales were observed around 0.14$, but 0.12$ support held during low-volume tests. Accumulation phase characteristics are not yet clear; oversold RSI along with divergence signals has started to form, suggesting smart money may be accumulating. According to Wyckoff methodology, we are in the secondary test phase – if 0.1204$ is not broken, a spring setup is possible. For futures markets, follow ARB futures market data, with funding rates trending negative indicating short pressure.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, ARB is testing 0.1294$ support confluence (score 62/100). On the 1D timeframe, there are 2 supports / 3 resistances breakdown: movement continues within the bearish channel, but RSI divergence creates bullish divergence potential. Closures below EMA20 show the trend is intact; as confluence, the 0.1330$ pivot level should be monitored. This level provides confluence for long entry for position traders, not short-term traders.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, market structure is more clearly bearish: 0.1204$ major support (68/100) is being tested with lower lows. On 1W, 2S/3R confluence strengthens 0.1481$ resistance. Supertrend gives bearish signal, but volume dry-up increases accumulation signals. Multi-timeframe confluence makes the 0.12$-0.14$ range an inflection point – the breakout direction will determine the weekly trend. Visit the ARB and other analyses page for all analyses.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: 0.1204$ (major, 68/100), 0.1294$ (62/100). Resistances: 0.1330$ (62/100), 0.1481$ (major, 65/100), 0.2539$ (65/100). While the trend remains intact, holding above 0.1204$ strengthens bullish bias; in case of breakdown, 0.0671$ downside risk activates. Upside objective 0.2043$ (30 score), R/R ratio is attractive for strategic entries. These levels are key inflection points that will define the market phase.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

Upside Scenario

Closure above 0.1294$-0.1330$ and breakout of 0.1481$ activates the bullish scenario: long positions can be taken for 0.2043$ target, stop-loss below 0.1204$. Wait for volume increase for accumulation confirmation; keep position sizing limited to 2-5% risk. On a monthly horizon, 0.25$+ potential with macro rally.

Downside Scenario

Breakdown of 0.1204$ leads to bearish continuation: short entries target 0.0671$ downside, trailing stop above 0.1330$. If distribution patterns strengthen, movement accelerates toward cycle lows. Risk management is critical; hedge considering BTC correlation.

Bitcoin Correlation

ARB shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC’s downtrend at 75,294$ level (24h -3.68%) is pressuring altcoins. BTC key supports 75,211$-72,946$, resistances 77,864$-82,178$. While BTC Supertrend is bearish, caution for ARB: if BTC drops below 72,946$, ARB tests 0.12$ support. BTC dominance rise delays alt season; position traders should watch BTC 77,864$ breakout as ARB long trigger.

Conclusion: Important Points for Next Week

Next week focus: 0.1204$-0.1294$ support test and BTC movements. Monitor phase change with volume spikes; oversold bounce is likely but 0.1481$ confirmation is required for trend reversal. Strategic patience is key for position traders – avoid early entries.