OP Technical Analysis Feb 4

OP is approaching the critical support zone ($0.2067) within the overall downtrend, signaling preparation for short-term rebound buys with an oversold RSI (28.31); however, the bearish outlook will remain dominant unless it achieves sustained levels above EMA20 ($0.27).

Executive Summary

As of February 4, 2026, the OP token is trading at $0.22, with the overall market structure maintaining a downtrend. Despite a 2.24% rise over the last 24 hours, the price remains below EMA20 ($0.27) and Supertrend is issuing a bearish signal. RSI at 28.31 is in the oversold region, while MACD’s negative histogram confirms momentum loss. Critical support at $0.2067 (80/100 score), resistance at $0.2358 (70/100). Bitcoin’s downtrend is exerting pressure on altcoins; while a short-term bounce is possible, long-term risk remains high. Bullish target $0.3644, bearish $0.0789; risk/reward ratio unbalanced.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

OP’s dominant trend across multiple timeframes (1D/3D/1W) is clearly downward. On the daily chart, the higher highs/lower lows structure is broken, with lower highs and lower lows continuing to form. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and not testing the $0.29 resistance. Price action, despite a 2.24% rise from the $0.21-$0.23 range in the last 24 hours, maintains its overall bearish impulse wave character. No trendline breaks on the 3-day or weekly charts, indicating sellers remain in control. For a potential reversal, a close above EMA20 ($0.27) and a volume-backed breakout are required.

Structural Levels

7 strong levels identified across multiple timeframes: 1D (1 support/1 resistance), 3D (2S/2R), 1W (1S/1R). Main structural support at $0.2067 (80/100 strength, former swing low and Fibonacci 0.618), a break here opens the path to $0.19. Upper structure resistance at $0.2358 (70/100, near EMA50), above that $0.27 EMA20 and $0.29 Supertrend resistance. Weekly pivot at $0.25, a critical turning point. These levels should be monitored as points of market structure breakdown; support holds trigger bounces, breaks trigger deepening.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 28.31 is in the oversold region, no divergence but high short-term reaction potential – the rise in the last 24 hours is feeding off this signal. MACD in bearish crossover, histogram expanding negatively, no cross above signal line. Stochastic below 20%, Williams %R at -95 oversold. Momentum confluence is bearish but oversold conditions carry short-squeeze risk. On the 4-hour chart, RSI approaching 35, an early recovery sign.

Trend Indicators

EMAs in bearish hierarchy: Price below EMA20 ($0.27), distant from EMA50 ($0.28) and EMA200 ($0.35). Death cross (EMA20 < EMA50) active. Supertrend bearish, trailing stop forming resistance at $0.29. Below Ichimoku cloud, Tenkan/Kijun cross bearish. ADX 35+ indicates medium-high trend strength, -DI dominant. This confluence supports trend continuation; EMA20 breakout signals pre-reversal.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports: $0.2067 (80/100, main swing low, volume accumulation zone, Fib 0.618 – if this fails, targets $0.19 and $0.15). $0.21 daily low, psychological. Resistance: $0.2358 (70/100, near EMA21), $0.27 EMA20, $0.29 Supertrend. Above that, bullish target $0.3644 (52 score, Fib extension). These levels confirmed by volume profile; high volume expected at $0.2067. Pivot point analysis aligns R1 $0.23, S1 $0.21. Breakdown scenario: Support loss with >5% volume spike to $0.0789 (21 score).

Volume and Market Participation

24-hour volume $133.61M, medium-high compared to recent days (20% increase), but trend volume bearish – decreasing volume on rises warns of divergence. OBV in downtrend, seller pressure dominant. No close above VWAP $0.2250, low institutional participation. Multi-TF volume: Declining OBV on 1W indicates long-term selling. For upside, $150M+ volume breakout required; current $133M defense insufficient. Chaikin Money Flow negative, capital outflow continues.

Risk Assessment

Risk/reward: Bullish target $0.3644 (65% upside potential), bearish $0.0789 (64% downside risk) – 1:1 ratio unbalanced, long positions high risk. Main risks: BTC drop crushes altcoins (below $72K tests $70K), rising dominance, volume-less bounce failure. Stop-loss suggestion: Below $0.2050 (support break). Position size 1-2% risk, trailing stop with Supertrend. Volatility medium (ATR 5%), no news but Layer2 competition long-term pressure. Balanced view: Short-term long scalps ($0.2067 hold), long-term short bias.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $72,686 (-4.23%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish – altcoins like OP affected with 0.8+ correlation. BTC support break at $72,946 pulls to $70,072, then $61,211; in this scenario OP drops to $0.19. BTC recovery above $75,111 resistance could test OP at $0.25. Dominance rise triggers alt outflow. To watch: OP short below BTC $70K, cautious long above $75K. OP/BTC pair in down channel, independent movement difficult.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

OP chart full of bearish confluence: Downtrend, price below EMA, bearish MACD/Supertrend, BTC pressure. Oversold RSI offers short-term bounce ($0.2358 target), but if $0.2067 fails, deep drop to $0.0789 likely. Strategy: Long scalps at $0.2067 (TP $0.27, SL $0.20), overall short bias ($0.2358 rejection). Follow for OP Spot Analysis and OP Futures Analysis. Monitor long-term Layer2 developments, but technical risk high. Decisions are personal.