PA Daily News | Trump may sign the crypto market structure bill before April; PlanB says Bitcoin could retreat to $25,000 in extreme scenarios.

Today's top news highlights:

White House official: Trump will sign the crypto market structure bill before April.

Crypto compliance firm TRM Labs completes $70 million Series C funding round, valuing the company at $1 billion.

PlanB presents four bear market scenarios: In the extreme scenario, Bitcoin could pull back to $25,000.

After Vitalik raised questions about the L2 scaling model, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base responded one after another.

Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani has transitioned to an advisory role, focusing on emerging technologies such as AI and robotics.

Tom Lee refuted the claim that unrealized losses in the Ethereum treasury would suppress future ETH prices: "This is a characteristic, not a flaw."

Butuo County, Sichuan Province, issued a notice prohibiting virtual currency "mining" activities.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund indirectly holds 9,573 bitcoins.

Macro & Regulatory

White House official: Trump will sign the crypto market structure bill before April.

According to The Bitcoin Historian, White House officials have just stated that President Trump will sign the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act before April.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that there would be no "bailout" of Bitcoin, and the $500 million in Bitcoin seized by the government has since appreciated to $15 billion.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before Congress that the U.S. government would not "bail out" the asset by requiring private banks to buy more Bitcoin during a market downturn. He emphasized that neither the Treasury Department nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has this authority. Bessent also revealed that the $500 million in Bitcoin acquired by the U.S. government through asset forfeiture has appreciated to over $15 billion. According to an executive order signed by Trump in 2025, the U.S. can only increase its strategic reserves through asset forfeiture or budget-neutral strategies (such as converting oil or precious metals into Bitcoin), not through open market purchases. While this move has been criticized by some in the Bitcoin community as insufficient, Bitcoin advocates believe that U.S. government purchases could encourage other countries to build their own strategic reserves, thereby influencing Bitcoin prices and market demand.

US ADP employment figures for January were 22,000, below the expected 48,000.

According to Jinshi News, the US ADP employment figure for January was 22,000, below the expected 48,000 and the previous figure of 41,000.

Later reports indicated that the ADP employment report, often referred to as the "mini-nonfarm payrolls," showed weaker-than-expected figures, suggesting a continued slowdown in the US labor market .

U.S. Labor Department: Non-farm payrolls will be released on February 11, CPI data will be released on February 13.

According to Jinshi Data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the release date for the January non-farm payroll report will be February 11; the release date for the January CPI report will be February 13. In addition, the December job openings and labor mobility report will be released on February 5. Previously, due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. government, the release of some data was delayed, but the shutdown ended late Tuesday local time, and the operating funds for the Department of Labor and most other government agencies will remain until September 30. It is understood that in addition to the regular monthly employment data and unemployment rate data, the January employment report also includes the highly anticipated revisions to the annual employment data.

Butuo County, Sichuan Province, issued a notice prohibiting virtual currency "mining" activities.

Butuo County, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, recently issued a "Notice on Prohibiting Virtual Currency Mining Activities," stating that virtual currency mining is a prohibited activity by the state. The province and prefecture attach great importance to rectifying virtual currency mining activities and have made a series of arrangements and deployments. To maintain social stability and regulate market order, the county hereby announces the following prohibition on virtual currency mining activities: (I) All forms of virtual currency mining activities are prohibited, including but not limited to mining of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. (II) Township governments and relevant industry authorities such as telecommunications and electricity departments shall strengthen the investigation and supervision of virtual currency mining activities in accordance with the principles of territorial and industry management, and resolutely crack down on illegal mining activities. (III) If any illegal mining activities are discovered, please report them to the Butuo County People's Government and the Development and Reform Commission immediately.

The Canadian Investment Industry Regulatory Organization has formally established a temporary cryptocurrency custody framework.

According to Cointelegraph, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (CIRO) has officially released a provisional regulatory framework for the custody of cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets. This framework aims to provide regulatory clarity for investment dealers and protect investor interests during the long-term rule-making process. The framework imposes custody requirements on dealer members operating crypto trading platforms, including setting caps on custody percentages, specifying capital thresholds, and clarifying reporting obligations. CIRO introduces a tiered custody model, increasing capital, insurance, governance, and technical safeguards requirements based on the percentage of client assets a custodian is allowed to hold. For example, Tier 1 and Tier 2 custodians can hold 100% of a dealer's client crypto assets, but must meet higher capital thresholds; while the maximum percentage of assets held internally by the dealer is capped at 20%.

Project Updates

Changpeng Zhao responds to rumors: Binance has seen a net inflow of billions of dollars in funds over the past month.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao stated on the X platform: "Binance has seen net inflows of funds, amounting to billions of dollars, over the 1-day, 7-day, and 1-month statistical periods. Some people spreading panic have seen the exact opposite results."

Binance will delist RVVUSDT and YALAUSDT perpetual contracts on February 10th.

Binance announced that it will automatically settle and close all positions of USDⓈ-M RVVUSDT and YALAUSDT perpetual contracts at 17:00 Beijing time on February 10, 2026, and will subsequently delist the relevant contracts.

Espresso announces ESP token economics: 10% allocated for airdrops, 24.81% for future incentives.

The Espresso Foundation announced that the Espresso Network will soon transition to a decentralized Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, and simultaneously launched the ESP token. ESP is an ERC-20 token with a total initial supply of 3.59 billion and no fixed maximum supply. ESP tokens will be used to support Espresso's HotShot consensus, pay protocol fees, and drive the network's decentralization and ecosystem development. The Espresso Network is designed for Rollups, providing fast, secure finality and low-cost data availability, and enabling seamless inter-chain interoperability. ESP token allocation includes: contributors (27.36%), investors (14.32%), airdrop (10%), community launchpad (1%), staking incentives (3.01%), future incentive plans (24.81%), foundation operations (15%), and liquidity supply (4.5%). The airdrop portion will be fully unlocked, and the remaining portions will be allocated according to different linear unlocking plans.

Kyle Samani has responded intensively to community concerns: He will not return to Multicoin, and Ethereum has no advantage in RWA.

Following his departure from Multicoin Capital, Kyle Samani responded intensively to community inquiries on the X platform. Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb likened his departure to Michael Jordan leaving the Chicago Bulls, to which Kyle Samani responded that he "would not return to the Bulls," implying that he would not return to Multicoin Capital. In addition, in response to other community users, he stated that he would support the rapid development of Solana, and claimed that Ethereum, apart from stablecoins, does not have a significant advantage in RWA, while Solana has achieved a significant lead in areas such as payments, applications, and DePIN.

Previous reports indicated that Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani has moved to an advisory role, focusing on emerging technologies such as AI and robotics ; a wallet suspected to be associated with Multicoin Capital allegedly exchanged a large amount of ETH for HYPE tokens ; and a deleted tweet from the Multicoin co-founder stated: "Cryptocurrencies are not as interesting as expected, and the potential of blockchain is limited ."

SBI Holdings has partnered with Startale Group to launch the Strium blockchain, focusing on on-chain securities markets.

Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings, in partnership with blockchain R&D company Startale Group (the team behind Sony's Layer 2 project), has jointly developed a Layer 1 blockchain network called Strium. Designed specifically to support on-chain securities trading, this network aims to become the "foundational trading layer" for the Asian on-chain securities market, providing 24/7 trading capabilities and DeFi composability. Previously, SBI and Startale announced a collaboration in August 2025 to develop a yen-based stablecoin and RWA trading platform, aiming to achieve cross-border instant settlement, fragmented ownership, and compliant on-chain trading. Strium's proof-of-concept was released today, demonstrating its key technological capabilities, including settlement efficiency, resilience under high load, and interoperability with traditional financial systems and blockchain networks. Furthermore, Startale recently received a $13 million investment from Sony to develop the Ethereum Layer 2 project Soneium and operate Astar Network, Japan's largest public blockchain. SBI Holdings has also increased its investment in the crypto space, including investing in Circle's IPO and developing a crypto ETF that may be listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Coinbase adds Aztec, Espresso, Rainbow, and RaveDAO to its listing roadmap

According to an official announcement from Coinbase Markets, Aztec (AZTEC), Espresso (ESP), Rainbow (RNBW), and RaveDAO (RAVE) have been added to the listing roadmap today.

CME Group is exploring the launch of "CME Coin" and is partnering with Google to pilot tokenized cash.

According to CME Group CEO Terry Duffy's remarks during the company's latest earnings call, the company is exploring the launch of its own cryptocurrency, "CME Coin," and plans to deploy it on a decentralized network for use by industry participants. This is the first time CME has explicitly mentioned the possibility of issuing its own token. Duffy stated that this plan is part of CME's exploration in the tokenized collateral space, and the company is also collaborating with Google to develop a "tokenized cash" solution, expected to launch later this year. This solution will involve banks acting as custodians to facilitate transactions. Currently, CME has not clarified whether "CME Coin" will be used as a stablecoin, settlement token, or for other purposes. Duffy added that the market may have higher trust in it compared to tokens issued by systemically important financial institutions. Furthermore, CME plans to launch 24/7 trading services for cryptocurrency futures in the second quarter of this year, adding futures contracts for Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar. CME's daily cryptocurrency trading volume is projected to reach $12 billion by 2025, with micro Ethereum and Bitcoin futures performing particularly well.

Fidelity's stablecoin FIDD has officially launched, open to both retail and institutional investors.

According to The Block, Fidelity Investments' USD stablecoin, Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD), has officially launched and is open to retail and institutional investors. Issued on Ethereum by the Fidelity Digital Asset Association, the stablecoin can be purchased or redeemed directly for $1 through Fidelity Digital Assets, Fidelity Crypto Assets, and Fidelity Crypto Assets services for wealth management platforms.

BNB Chain: The AI ​​agent economy standard ERC-8004 has been deployed on the BSC mainnet and testnet.

BNB Chain announced on its X platform that its "AI Agent Economy" has been launched on BNB Chain, and the ERC-8004 infrastructure has been deployed on the BSC mainnet and testnet. This standard aims to establish a trust layer for AI agents by introducing two core components: identity registration and reputation registration, providing a verifiable on-chain identity and reputation system for autonomous AI agents.

UBS CEO: UBS is adopting a "fast follower" strategy in the tokenized asset space.

According to Bloomberg, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti stated during an earnings call that the bank is considering offering cryptocurrency access to individual clients, while emphasizing that it will not act as a "pioneer" in blockchain-based technology applications. Ermotti pointed out that UBS is building core infrastructure and exploring a range of targeted services, from crypto access for individual clients to tokenized deposit solutions for corporate clients. He stated that UBS is adopting a "fast follower" strategy in the tokenized asset space, with related business expansion expected to unfold over the next three to five years, complementing its traditional business. Previously, in January, it was reported that UBS planned to offer cryptocurrency trading services to some clients.

Binance Alpha will list WARD at 8 PM today, with an airdrop threshold of 231 points.

According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will list Warden Protocol (WARD), and Alpha trading will begin on February 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UTC+8). Users holding at least 231 Binance Alpha Points can claim a token airdrop. Claiming 200 WARD tokens on the Alpha event page is on a first-come, first-served basis. If the event continues, the point threshold will automatically decrease by 5 points every five minutes. Please note that claiming the airdrop will consume 15 Binance Alpha Points. Users must confirm their claim within 24 hours on the Alpha event page; otherwise, they will be considered to have forfeited their airdrop.

Analysis & Opinions

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, and may further decline to the $60,000-$70,000 range.

According to CryptoQuant's weekly report, the Bitcoin market has entered a bear market phase. Here are the key analytical points: On-chain metrics show bear market signals: Bitcoin's price reached a high of $126,000 in early October 2025, at which time the bullish rating index was 80 (bullish). However, after the liquidation event on October 10th, the index turned bearish and has now dropped to zero. Currently, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $75,000, indicating a weak market structure. Significantly decreased institutional demand: In 2025, US spot ETFs purchased 46,000 BTC, while in 2026 they were net sellers of 10,600 BTC, creating a demand gap of 56,000 BTC compared to last year, continuously exerting selling pressure. Weak US spot demand: Despite the price decline, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since mid-October 2025, indicating weak participation from US investors. This contrasts sharply with historical bull markets driven by US demand. Liquidity conditions are tightening: USDT's market capitalization growth has turned negative for the first time in the past 60 days ($-133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023. Stablecoin expansion peaked at $15.9 billion at the end of October 2025, and the current pullback is consistent with the characteristics of a bear market liquidity contraction. Furthermore, explicit spot demand growth has plummeted by 93% over the past year, from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC. Technical structures indicate downside risks: Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, dropping 23% in 83 days, showing even weaker performance than the bear market at the beginning of 2022. The breach of key on-chain support levels suggests that Bitcoin may further decline to the $60,000–$70,000 range.

PlanB presents four bear market scenarios: In the extreme scenario, Bitcoin could pull back to $25,000.

Crypto analyst PlanB published an article on the X platform stating that, in his view, there are four potential downside scenarios in this Bitcoin bear market: 1) A pullback of about 80% from the previous all-time high of approximately $126,000, corresponding to a price of approximately $25,000; 2) A drop to the 200-week moving average or the already realized price range, corresponding to approximately $50,000 to $60,000; 3) A drop to a level slightly higher than the all-time high of the previous cycle, corresponding to around $70,000; 4) The market may have completed a phase of bottoming out around $72,900 yesterday.

a16z published an article stating that blockchain is a key infrastructure for internet trust in the AI ​​era.

The a16z crypto team published an article pointing out that as AI systems scale up, the internet lacks a native way to distinguish between humans and machines, posing a challenge to the trust system. Blockchain technology can provide a solution. The article summarizes five key roles: Increasing the cost of AI impersonation: By using decentralized human identity verification systems (such as World ID), the scale of fake identity generation is limited, increasing the cost of attacks. Decentralized identity verification: Blockchain empowers users with control over their identities, avoiding single points of failure in centralized identity systems while protecting privacy and censorship resistance. Creating universal "passports": A blockchain-based identity layer allows AI agents to operate across platforms, carrying permissions and payment information, improving interoperability and preventing lock-in effects. Supporting machine-scale payments: Utilizing blockchain micropayments and smart contracts, low-cost, refined payment allocation is achieved, supporting economic activities between machines. Strengthening privacy protection: Through zero-knowledge proofs, users can verify their identities without exposing specific data, preventing AI from abusing information for impersonation. a16z believes that blockchain is a necessary infrastructure for building an AI-native internet, restoring trust and supporting the healthy development of AI systems.

Traders: Bitcoin's key trendline at $68,000 is expected to support its price.

According to Cointelegraph, multiple traders have analyzed that Bitcoin's price may be approaching a key long-term trendline support level. Analysis shows that Bitcoin's 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is currently around $68,400, a level considered an important potential macro bottom area. Trader Nic Puckrin points out that if Bitcoin breaks below its current April low of around $74,400, the next key support level is around $70,000. A further break below this level could see the market target the $55,700 to $58,200 area, a range between the global average holding cost and the 200-week moving average, which is expected to be the final bottom. Other traders such as Altcoin Sherpa and BitBull also believe that a price pullback to the 200-week EMA is "logical," and historically, every time Bitcoin has broken below the 100-week EMA, it has typically retested the 200-week EMA as long-term support.

Citigroup: Bitcoin is nearing pre-US election support levels; ETF inflows have slowed significantly.

According to CoinDesk, Citi analysis indicates that Bitcoin is approaching a key pre-US election price support level. The report states that after weeks of decline, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the bank's estimated average entry cost of approximately $81,600 for US spot Bitcoin ETFs and is approaching the key level of around $70,000 reached before last year's election. The report points out that the main source of new demand supporting the market—ETF inflows—has slowed significantly, while the futures market continues to see long liquidation. Analysts say the cryptocurrency market exhibits volatility similar to precious metals but has failed to follow the recent safe-haven rally in gold, highlighting that its price is still primarily influenced by liquidity conditions and risk sentiment, rather than safe-haven demand. The report believes that regulatory progress remains a key potential catalyst, but the slow and uneven progress of the US digital asset market structure bill has weakened related expectations. The report also mentions macroeconomic risks, including concerns about the contraction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which has historically put pressure on crypto assets by reducing liquidity in the banking system.

Analysis: Bitcoin has historically spent very little time in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, and its current consolidation may indicate a prolonged period of range-bound trading.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's price has been consolidating in the $70,000 to $80,000 range for five consecutive days. This price band has historically been extremely short-lived, lasting only about 35 days in total, lacking solid historical support or resistance levels, making it a potential consolidation zone or a test of downward pressure. Data shows a weak on-chain supply structure within this price range. The largest corporate holder, Strategy, has only made one large purchase within this range, buying 27,200 Bitcoins at an average price of approximately $74,463 in November 2024. Historical price action also shows that Bitcoin often moves quickly through this area; for example, after the November 2024 election, the price surged from $68,000 to $100,000 within weeks without forming a valid consolidation. Analysts point out that the longer the price stays within a range, the stronger the accumulated positions can become. The current situation suggests that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within this range or retest the lower edge of the range before establishing a more solid foundation.

Analysis: Multiple data points suggest that Bitcoin's downward trend may not yet be over.

According to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin's price rebounding above $76,000, multiple indicators suggest its downtrend may not be over. Technical analysis shows the BTC/USD weekly chart has confirmed a head and shoulders pattern. After breaking below the $82,000 neckline support, its theoretical downside target is around $52,650. Furthermore, a bearish flag pattern has been confirmed on the daily chart, with analysts pointing to the next key liquidity target around $65,500. Analyst BitcoinHabebe believes that given the macro headwinds, a drop to $60,000 for Bitcoin is "obvious." On-chain indicators also point to weakness. The Puell Multiple indicator, which tracks miner revenue, has entered the "discount zone" and may remain there, which analysts note typically signifies a continuation of the bearish trend. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's network hashrate has fallen 12% from its November 2025 high, the largest drop since 2021, suggesting a possible miner capitulation. In addition, on-chain data shows that a large amount of BTC has been continuously flowing into the Binance exchange, with a cumulative inflow of 56,000 to 59,000 BTC on February 4 and 5. This may create actual selling pressure in the spot market, indicating that the market may be entering a panic selling phase.

Analysis: One indicator suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a cycle bottom again, a prediction that has historically been accurate multiple times.

According to CoinDesk analysis, an on-chain metric called "Bitcoin Profit and Loss Supply" suggests the market may be approaching a historic bottom. This metric measures the relationship between overall market holding costs and price by comparing the number of Bitcoins in profitable and loss-making states. Glassnode data shows that approximately 11.1 million Bitcoins are currently profitable, while 8.9 million are losing money. Historically, when these two figures converge, it often corresponds to a market cycle bottom. For example, the bottoms in 2022 (around $15,000), 2020 (below $3,000), 2019 (around $3,300), and 2015 (slightly above $200) all occurred after this signal appeared. Analysis indicates that if these two figures converge at the current cost base level, it could mean the Bitcoin price will approach $60,000. This metric reflects overall market holding pressure and investor sentiment by tracking changes in the amount of profitable and loss-making coins in the circulating supply, and its convergence point is considered a reliable signal for identifying market capitulation and long-term opportunities.

After Vitalik raised questions about the L2 scaling model, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base responded one after another.

According to Cointelegraph, following Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's comments that "the original vision of Layer 2 as the primary scaling engine is no longer applicable," several L2 builders responded, generally agreeing that Rollups need to transcend the positioning of being "cheaper Ethereum," but disagreeing on whether scaling should still be their core role. Optimism co-founder Karl Floersch welcomed the challenge of building a modular L2 stack that supports "full-spectrum decentralization," while acknowledging major obstacles such as long withdrawal times, the incomplete production readiness of Phase 2 proofs, and a lack of cross-chain application tools. He supported the native Rollup pre-compilation scheme emphasized by Buterin.

Steven Goldfeder, co-founder of Offchain Labs, the developer of Arbitrum, takes a more hardline stance, arguing that while the Rollup model has evolved, scaling remains the core value of L2. He points out that Arbitrum was not built as "a service of Ethereum," but rather because Ethereum provides a highly secure, low-cost settlement layer that enables large-scale Rollups. He warns that if Ethereum is perceived as hostile to Rollups, institutions might choose to launch independent Layer 1 chains instead of deploying on Ethereum.

Base lead Jesse Pollak stated that the scaling of Ethereum's L1 is "a victory for the entire ecosystem," agreeing that L2 cannot simply be "cheaper Ethereum." He mentioned that Base is differentiating itself through applications, account abstraction, and privacy features, and is working towards the second phase of decentralization. StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson hinted that some ZK-native L2s (such as Starknet) believe they already meet the specialized role described by Buterin. The entire Ethereum ecosystem is facing a roadmap adjustment: the base layer aims to enhance its own capabilities, while L2 is repositioned as a dedicated environment serving different technical needs.

Tom Lee refuted the claim that unrealized losses in the Ethereum treasury would suppress future ETH prices: "This is a characteristic, not a flaw."

According to The Block, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee refuted claims that its unrealized Ethereum losses would suppress future ETH prices. He stated that unrealized losses during market downturns are "a characteristic, not a flaw, of the Ethereum Treasury strategy," and pointed out that such pullbacks are an expected part of the market cycle. Previously, market commentators had suggested that BitMine's approximately $6.6 billion in unrealized losses would eventually create selling pressure and limit price increases. Lee responded that this view misunderstands the Ethereum Treasury's positioning, emphasizing that BitMine aims to track Ethereum prices and generate excess returns throughout the entire market cycle. He likened this to an index ETF incurring losses during a broad market downturn.

Analysis: Crypto options market signals reinforce a cautious stance; $75,000 is a key turning point for Bitcoin.

Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analysis indicates that the crypto market remains volatile. Bitcoin briefly fell to around $72,900, its lowest point since the post-US election rally, before rebounding after the US House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion appropriations bill ending the partial government shutdown. On the macro front, while the risk of a government shutdown has eased, the Department of Homeland Security's funding has only been extended to February 13th, leaving new deadline risks. Furthermore, oil prices regained a geopolitical premium after the US shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, but diplomatic news limited gains. The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair has reignited policy reaction risks. If the market begins pricing in larger rate cuts this year, it could provide marginal support for risk assets and weaken the dollar. However, investors are also watching the pace of balance sheet contraction; shortages in key areas of reserves could trigger market pressure. Signals from the options market reinforce a cautious stance. Despite a rebound in spot prices, implied volatility remains high, at-the-money option volatility remains high, and the term structure is trending towards a slight inversion, indicating that the market is still paying a premium for recent gap risks. The bearish skew has become sharply steep, and butterfly spreads remain expensive, indicating a concentrated market demand for a sharp drop. From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a key turning point. If it can stabilize at this level, and funding rates return to normal as positions are rebuilt, then this level seems like a reasonable place to increase risk exposure. A break below this level could quickly shift market sentiment to a defensive stance.

Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin's biggest risk lies in governance, not quantum computing.

According to Cryptobriefing, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated in an earnings call that the biggest risk facing Bitcoin is internal governance issues, not quantum computing. He believes quantum computing is more of a market hype narrative and expects Bitcoin to upgrade to quantum-resistant technology in time. Novogratz pointed out that the real long-term threat to Bitcoin lies in potential persistent disagreements among developers or a failure to reach a consensus on upgrades, but he believes this is unlikely, as Bitcoin is capable of handling these issues. Regarding the recent market decline, Novogratz believes the selling pressure mainly stemmed from the distribution of tokens by long-term holders, rather than a collapse in market confidence. While acknowledging the possibility of further downside, he intuitively feels the market is closer to the bottom of the cycle than the beginning of another long crypto winter. He mentioned that legislation on the US crypto market regulatory framework could be a catalyst for attracting new demand through Wall Street channels, and noted that Bitcoin's role as a macro asset supported by both retail and institutional investors has been solidified.

Investment and Financing

Opinion, a prediction market, has completed a $20 million Pre-A round of financing, with participation from Hack VC and others.

According to CoinDesk, blockchain prediction market platform Opinion announced the completion of a $20 million Pre-A round of financing, with participation from Hack VC, Jump Crypto, Primitive Ventures, and Decasonic, among others. Opinion is a prediction market platform with entirely on-chain settlement, its model more similar to Polymarket. The company stated that it currently handles approximately one-third of global prediction market trading volume, with open interest exceeding $130 million. The platform is characterized by its diversified trading categories, covering a wide range of areas including macroeconomics, regional events, and crypto assets, not just sports and politics. The company's founders stated that this round of financing will be used to deepen regional presence and expand globally, in preparation for events such as the 2026 World Cup and multiple elections.

Crypto compliance firm TRM Labs completes $70 million Series C funding round, valuing the company at $1 billion.

According to Fortune magazine, cryptocurrency compliance and investigation startup TRM Labs announced the completion of a $70 million Series C funding round, valuing the company at $1 billion and making it a new "crypto unicorn." The round was led by early investor Blockchain Capital, with participation from traditional institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Bessemer, Brevan Howard, Thoma Bravo, and Citigroup Ventures. Founded in 2018 by Esteban Castaño and Rahul Raina, TRM Labs' blockchain analytics software is widely used by law enforcement agencies worldwide and a growing number of private companies using cryptocurrencies for fund transfers. Currently, approximately 40% of TRM's clients are from the private sector, and this percentage is growing as financial institutions explore tokenized deposits, equity, and other assets. The company has rapidly expanded to 350 employees and is leveraging AI technology to address evolving criminal methods.

mechanism

Norway's sovereign wealth fund indirectly holds 9,573 bitcoins.

According to CoinDesk, Norway's $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund indirectly holds 9,573 bitcoins through its equity holdings in companies such as Strategy, MARA, and Metaplanet. Its bitcoin exposure is projected to increase by 149% year-over-year by 2025.

BitMine currently holds approximately $8.42 billion in ETH and faces a potential loss of $7 billion due to the decline in ETH prices.

According to Coin Bureau, Tom Lee's BitMine currently holds 4.2851 million ETH (approximately $8.42 billion), but with the price of Ethereum falling below $2,100, BitMine now faces a paper loss of over $7 billion. Previously, Strategy's BTC holdings showed a paper profit of $1.332 billion, while BitMine's ETH holdings showed a paper loss of $6.5 billion.

Trend Research reports that the liquidation price has fallen to the $1575-$1681 range, with ETH losses exceeding $600 million.

According to AiYi's monitoring, Trend Research has lowered its liquidation price to the range of $1575.13 to $1681.94, temporarily alleviating liquidation risk. In the past 8 hours, Trend Research deposited 35,000 ETH into Binance, and since February 1st, it has seemingly sold 191,411.05 ETH, with a total value of approximately $442 million. The average deposit price was $2268, and the estimated loss is $160 million. Currently, it still holds 463,317.55 ETH (approximately $995 million) on-chain, with a floating loss of $442 million, and total losses have reached $602 million. Previously, it was reported that Trend Research transferred another $53.24 million worth of ETH into Binance, bringing the total to approximately $427 million.

Important data

Venture capital investment in the crypto space is projected to reach $34 billion in 2025, doubling from 2024.

According to a Cointelegraph Research report, total venture capital investment in the cryptocurrency sector reached $34 billion in 2025, doubling from $17 billion in 2024. Real-world asset tokenization became the dominant narrative, with this sector raising over $2.5 billion. Investment logic has shifted significantly: institutions are favoring projects with sustainable revenue models and clear market fit, leading to later funding stages. Seed rounds declined by 18%, while Series B funding increased by 90%. Tokenized RWA's total market capitalization has exceeded $38 billion, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the crypto market, but it still has enormous room for growth compared to the trillion-dollar traditional market globally. Meanwhile, the funding frenzy for Ethereum Layer 2 and modular infrastructure has sharply declined, with only $162 million raised in 2025, a 72% decrease from 2024. The report attributes this to the saturation of the L2 ecosystem, indicating that investment demand has been fully met.

ETH briefly fell below $2,100 ; BTC briefly fell below $71,000.

Spot gold fell 3.12%, while silver's decline widened to 15%.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $545 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing the largest outflow at $373 million.