'Wake-up call' as Trump escalates Senate GOP fear of midterm wipeout

Republicans in the Senate are growing increasingly scared that Donald Trump's mounting unpopularity will tank their midterm hopes, according to lawmakers who spoke with The Hill on Thursday, with a recent special election upset acting as a major "wake-up call."

The GOP has been stressing about its odds heading into the 2026 midterm elections since the off-year elections in November, when Democrats across the nation swept into office campaigning on affordability and against Trump's many overreaches. Until recently, however, their fears had been primarily focused on the House, where their odds of success would have been slim even if their majority was not already razor-thin and shrinking gradually.

Now, as Trump refuses to meaningfully back off his unpopular mass deportation tactics and address economic woes, fear is growing that Republicans might also lose the Senate majority in November, a result that would stall Trump's political agenda almost entirely.

"Senators are saying more and more loudly that they’re very, very concerned about the environment, that it’s continuing to deteriorate," one anonymous GOP senator told The Hill. "They say it over and over again."

Making matters worse for these lawmakers was the shocking result of a special election in Texas this week. In a race to fill a vacant state Senate seat, Democrat Taylor Rehmet pulled off a 14-point victory over Republican Leigh Wambganss in a deep-red district. That same district had swung for Trump by 17 points in 2024, and had not elected a Democrat to the state Senate since the 1970s. Some in the Senate GOP caucus told The Hill that this result was a "wake-up call."

"I don’t take any of these elections lightly," Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. "I think what happened in Texas… it’s something that ought to capture our attention and remind us we need to up our game and do a better job of not only putting up a record of accomplishment for the American people, but then being able to deliver that message."

Over the first year of his second term, Trump's approval rating dipped considerably, down from a roughly 50-50 rating when he returned to now, when most polls put him around the high 30s or low 40s. Signs even suggest mounting dissatisfaction among his loyal conservative base.

“Republicans are right to be worried about the midterms,” another anonymous Senate Republican told the outlet. “You can feel when the water temperature changes, and it feels like it’s going to change in a second.”

“It underscores the need for Republican turnout in November," Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said in his own statement.

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