Bitcoin will reach the bottom of the current downturn in the coming days or weeks somewhere in the range between $60,000 and $65,000, Russian market watchers say.
Dropping below the $70,000 mark, the leading cryptocurrency hit a low unseen in well over a year, losing more than 40% of its value since the latest all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025.
Three scenarios pitched in search of the bottom
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to continue to fall in the near term before it reaches firm ground, according to Russian experts following global developments closely.
Commenting for the business news portal RBC, the leading analyst of Cifra Markets, Alexander Kraiko, suggested three scenarios for the next six months, based on historical data from previous cycles.
The first model he detailed is centered on the pattern observed in 2019, which is similar to the current situation. With a rising stock market and amid a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction at the time, Bitcoin rose from around $3,000 to $13,000 and then fell to $6,500.
“If we extrapolate that pattern to the current cycle, the market is already close to its lows, in the range of $67,000 – $73,000,” said the specialist whose company is a licensed provider of crypto brokering services in Russia and other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Kraiko described the second model as a classic downtrend, as seen in 2022. In this worst-case scenario, BTC may find itself in the $35,000 – $40,000 range, although major differences would prevent that.
Back then, both cryptocurrencies and stocks declined together, while Bitcoin’s current correction is approaching 130 days, while stock indices remain close to their all-time highs.
Besides, monetary policies are much more predictable now than four years ago, when the sharp increase in the Fed rates played a major negative role.
The third approach to predicting the future is to value Bitcoin against gold rather than the U.S. dollar. Last week’s correction of the precious metal’s price may signal the beginning of a prolonged sideways trend, as witnessed at the start of the decade.
“If you look at the Bitcoin price in gold in December 2024, one BTC would have bought about 41 ounces. Currently, that’s about 15 ounces. The global trend line and support zone are located around 13 ounces, Alexander Kraiko explained.
“Historically, when gold formed a local high at $2,075 in 2020 and then entered a multi-year sideways trend, Bitcoin began a steady rise approximately two months later,” he elaborated, concluding:
Other predictions hover around that mark
According to Roman Nekrasov, an independent consultant in the field of information technologies, Bitcoin has several support levels now.
The first one is around $68,000 – $69,000, where those who expected it to fall below the psychological $70,000 mark are starting to buy again. He also told RBC:
His estimate suggests that the next support level will be in the range $65,000 – $67,000, and the bottom may be reached at $63,000, although investors may not allow it to fall that far down.
According to Dmitry Savintsev, analyst at the algorithmic trading services provider Cryptorg, the likely support level is somewhere between $65,500 and $69,000.
Not everyone is so optimistic, however. The likelihood of a further decline in the price of Bitcoin is quite high, believes Dmitry Tselischev, managing director of the Russian investment firm Rikom-Trust.
In an article published by the Prime news agency, the executive commented that while the dip is not indefinite, it will likely stop at around $55,000 to $60,000 – that’s the zone of historically high demand, where institutional investors flock.
Tselischev is convinced the current dynamics are not so much due to the crypto market’s own problems, but rather the “global liquidity cycle and investors’ shift to risk-off mode.”
“The collapse itself, as a result, has completely undermined the faith of most investors in Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional asset classes. The currency is now increasingly viewed as an instrument hypersensitive to rates, liquidity, and technology markets, rather than as ‘digital gold,’” he added.
According to the analyst, this strengthens Bitcoin’s correlation with growth stocks, “making the cryptocurrency more of a speculative asset in a portfolio than a safe haven.”
This week’s decline brought the exchange rate of BTC in U.S. dollars to its lowest level since November 2024, when President Donald Trump returned to power in Washington. Since the beginning of the year alone, the top cryptocurrency has fallen more than 20%.
Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to adopt comprehensive regulations for cryptocurrency investment that should give even its ordinary citizens legal access to digital assets.
The respective legislation, which must be adopted by July 1, is based on a new regulatory concept released by the Bank of Russia in late December.
The policy document recognizes Bitcoin and the like, including stablecoins, as “monetary assets.” They are currently treated mainly as property.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-to-bottom-out-below-65000-russian-analysts-predict/
