Gemini crypto exchange announced its withdrawal from the UK, European Union, and Australia markets. The company is also optimizing its resources by reducing its workforce by 25 percent. Gemini stated that AI automation has made engineers 100 times more efficient, citing the challenging regulatory environment and insufficient demand in these regions as the main reasons. Emphasizing that the US hosts the world’s largest capital markets, it announced that it will direct all its power to the Gemini Predictions platform.
Gemini Predictions Platform: Rapid Growth Figures
Launched in December 2025, Gemini Predictions quickly reached over 10,000 users and $24 million in trading volume. The platform allows users to bet on future events and is positioned as a pioneer in crypto-based prediction markets. This success is seen as the fruit of Gemini’s US-centric strategy.
Explosive Growth of Prediction Markets and Volume Data
The company defended the thesis that prediction markets will be as large as capital markets. According to Dune Analytics data, market volume rose to $3.1 billion in Q3 2024 with a quarterly increase of 565.4 percent. In January 2026, daily volumes fluctuated between $277 million and $550 million. These figures show that the sector is growing independently of traditional markets like BTC detailed analysis.
Daily prediction market trading volumes, September 2024 – February 2026. Source: Dune
Market Leaders: Polymarket and Kalshi Dominance
The prediction market is dominated by Polymarket (37% share) and Kalshi (26% share). Polymarket operates on the Polygon network with USDC, while Kalshi stands out with traditional finance integration. This leadership could enhance the competitiveness of Gemini’s platform.
| Market Leader | Market Share | Technology |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | %37 | Blockchain (Polygon) |
| Kalshi | %26 | CFTC Regulated |
Impact of Gemini’s Withdrawal on BTC and Crypto Market
This development occurred during the downturn following the flash crash in October 2026 and the stalling of the CLARITY Act. Gemini’s US-focused move could support BTC futures trading volume. Prediction markets act like oracles for BTC price predictions, increasing market liquidity. While awaiting regulatory clarity, the US’s CFTC-approved platforms could balance BTC volatility.
AI Automation and Future Strategy Analysis
The 25% reduction with AI is increasing Gemini’s efficiency. Engineering teams are now developing code 100 times faster. This signals similar automation trends in BTC detailed analysis tools. The company predicts that prediction markets will reach $10 billion in volume by the end of 2026.
- Size of US capital markets: Trillions of dollars.
- Prediction market potential: Equivalent to capital markets.
- Risk: Regulatory uncertainties continue.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/gemini-ab-withdraws-from-the-uk-and-australia-focus-on-the-us
