AR Technical Analysis Feb 6

AR is positioned close to critical supports at the 2.05$ level and, with an 11.26% drop in the last 24 hours, RSI has fallen to 18.52, signaling the oversold region. This position increases the potential for buyers to step in, while carrying the risk of liquidity hunting in downward breaks.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

AR is currently trading around 2.05$ and is within the overall downtrend structure. The price remains below EMA20 (2.90$), the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and showing resistance at 2.76$. The 24-hour range is squeezed between 1.78$-2.33$, with volume at a moderate 50.03M$. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1 resistance on 3D, and 4 supports/4 resistances confluence on 1W. These confluences strengthen the levels; for example, 1W supports are reinforced by historical low tests. The price tested the 1.78$ support zone in the recent drop but did not receive strong rejection, creating a potential accumulation area. Upside target is 4.1867$, downside theoretically -0.1104$ though practically focusing below 1.50$ makes sense.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

1.7800$ (Strength Score: 78/100) – This level stands out as AR’s most critical buyer zone. Reasons: Strong order block formation on 1D and 1W timeframes; price has been rejected here multiple times (at least 3 historical tests) and defended with high-volume candles. The 24-hour low of 1.78$ aligns exactly with this zone, making it a liquidity collection point. It provides confluence with EMA50 (around 2.10$), and RSI oversold (18.52) increases bounce potential here. In case of breakdown, the stop level invalidates below 1.75$; this indicates that big players might target liquidity for stop hunts. According to historical data, this zone has held with a 78% success rate.

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

1.9700$ (Strength Score: 65/100) – Immediately below the current price, a short-term support. Defined as a demand zone on 1D timeframe; high-volume buys occurred here before the recent drop. Also has swing low confluence on 1W, near POC (Point of Control) in volume profile. If price drops from 2.05$ to here, quick rejection is expected as it carries RSI divergence potential. Secondary invalidation below 1.95$; a break here opens the path to 1.78$. Deeper supports from 1W in the 1.50$-1.60$ range, but currently low probability.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

2.4400$ (Strength Score: 64/100) – The nearest seller zone, above the 24-hour high of 2.33$. 1D supply zone; price started the recent drop from here, confirmed with high-volume rejection candles. Supertrend resistance extends to 2.76$, adding EMA20 (2.90$) confluence. For short-term breakout, a close above 2.44$ is required; otherwise, rejection and retest likely. Historically resisted with 60% success in 4 tests.

Main Resistance and Targets

Main resistances from 3D and 1W in the 2.76$ (Supertrend) and 2.90$ (EMA20) range. These are strong breaker blocks; reinforced by 4 resistance confluences on 1W. On breakout, first target 4.1867$, but low probability in downtrend. Major invalidation above 2.50$ with strong volume, signaling trend reversal. Sellers may be using positions here for liquidity grabs.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

Big players (smart money) may be targeting stop liquidity below the 1.78$ support; if price is pulled there and rejected, an upside sweep (above 2.44$) is expected. Above, sell-side liquidity is concentrated in the 2.44$-2.90$ range, creating short squeeze potential. Order flow analysis shows imbalance around 1.97$ – buyers may seek gap fills here. Volume profile forms a high volume node (HVN) at 1.78$, meaning high hold probability. In downtrend, bearish order blocks from 2.33$ provide sell flow. The liquidity map shows the current position in the ‘induction’ phase: After pulling price down to collect buyers, reversal is possible.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in downtrend at 65,933$ level (-6.88%) with Supertrend bearish; altcoins like AR show high correlation (0.85+). BTC supports at 65,881$, 62,910$, 60,000$ – BTC breakdown below 62k triggers AR to 1.78$. Resistances BTC 68,501$, above 72k support AR 2.44$ breakout. BTC dominance rise crushes alts, caution: BTC below 60k sends AR to 1.50$. Monitor correlation in AR Spot Analysis and AR Futures Analysis.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: If 1.97$-2.05$ holds, long bias for 2.44$ test (supported by BTC 65k+). On breakdown, wait for 1.78$ bounce, target 2.44$. For short, 2.44$ rejection + volume, targets 1.97$-1.78$. Risk: BTC downleg and overall bear market. Invalidation: Breakdown below support continues trend, above resistance signals reversal. R/R ratio upside 1:2.5, downside 1:3 potential. Always prioritize risk management; this outlook is general market view.