The recent Bitcoin [BTC] drop to $60,000 was not normal. In a post on X, Joe McCann of Asymmetric noted that the move was a -5.65σ (standard deviation) using the 200-day lookback period.
Statistically, such an outcome qualifies as a ‘Black Swan’ event, rare and improbable. Yet, since Bitcoin’s inception, it has occurred four times. This underscores how ‘Black Swan’ events are relatively frequent in crypto and highlights the scale of the latest price crash.
Source: Axel Adler Jr on X
In a post on X, analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that BTC was trading well below its realized price at $79.1k. AMBCrypto reported that the leading crypto asset had made a 14-month low due to an increasingly strong correlation with U.S. tech stocks.
According to digital asset manager Grayscale, the sell-off was also driven by the CLARITY Act’s slow momentum.
Bitcoin institutional selling pressure is rising
Source: CryptoQuant
Analyst Darkfost pointed out that the Coinbase Premium gap was at its most negative point in 2026. It was especially compelling since this was the volume-weighted version, which helps reduce noise.
The negative gap means that the Bitcoin price on Coinbase is at a discount compared to the price on Binance. In other words, it implied heavy selling pressure from large U.S. investors.
The scenario is challenging and highly uncertain for long-term investors as well as traders.
The weekly low at $74.5k has been smashed aside. Although the current week’s trading has not closed, its drop to $60k laid open the possibility of a much deeper retracement.
Source: BTC/USD on TradingView
Trader Ibrahim made an interesting case for a potential Bitcoin bottom. In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, the trader noted that the previous cycle’s highest monthly close tended to be the bear market bottom.
If that is the case once again, the $55k-$60k area could be the current bear market’s bottom.
In the past, the approach of these monthly support zones has been slower than the breakneck bearish pace Bitcoin has set since November 2025. Long-term investors may have weeks and months before they witness the true market bottom.
As such, they need not be in any hurry to buy the market pain.
Final Thoughts
- The Bitcoin price drop was a highly improbable event, representing a -5.65σ move in the 200-day lookback period.
- It is unclear if prices will fall further, but traders and investors should operate under the assumption that the market bottom is not yet in.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-why-btcs-60k-drop-is-a-rare-black-swan-event/
