Bitcoin’s Chance Of Returning To $90K By March Is Slim

Key takeawys:

• Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as weak US job data and concerns over AI industry investments fueled investor risk aversion.

• Options markets show a 6% chance of Bitcoin returning to $90,000 by March.

Bitcoin (BTC) slid below $63,000 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. The 30% drop since the failed attempt to break $90,500 on Jan. 28 has left traders skeptical of any immediate bullish momentum. The current bearish sentiment is fueled by weak US job market data and rising concerns over massive capital expenditure within the artificial intelligence sector.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin’s slump was triggered by macroeconomic shifts, options traders are now pricing in just 6% odds of BTC reclaiming $90,000 by March.

On Deribit exchange, the right to buy Bitcoin at $90,000 on March 27 (a call option) traded at $522 on Thursday. This pricing suggests investors see little chance of a massive rally. According to the Black-Scholes model, these options reflect less than 6% odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by late March. For context, the right to sell Bitcoin at $50,000 (a put option) for the same date traded at $1,380, implying a 20% probability of a deeper crash.

Quantum computing risks and forced liquidation fears drive Bitcoin selling

Market participants have reduced crypto exposure due to emerging quantum computing risks and fears of forced liquidations by companies that built Bitcoin reserves through debt and equity. In mid-January, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing the risk of quantum computers reverse-engineering private keys.

Strategy (MSTR US), the largest publicly listed company with onchain BTC reserves, recently saw its enterprise value dip to $53.3 billion, while its cost basis sat at $54.2 billion. Japan’s Metaplanet (MPJPY US) faced a similar gap, valued at $2.95 billion against a $3.78 billion acquisition cost. Investors are worried that a prolonged bear market might force these companies to sell their positions to cover debt obligations.

External factors likely contributed to the rise in risk aversion, and even silver, the second-largest tradable asset by market capitalization, suffered a 36% weekly price drop after reaching a $121.70 all-time high on Jan. 29. 

Bitcoin’s 27% weekly decline closely mirrors losses seen in several billion-dollar listed companies, including Thomson Reuters (TRI), PayPal (PYPL), Robinhood (HOOD) and Applovin (APP). 

US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, up 118% from the same period in 2025, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The surge marked the highest number of January layoffs since 2009, when the economy was nearing the end of its deepest downturn in 80 years.

Related: Next Bitcoin accumulation phase may hinge on credit stress timing–Data

Market sentiment had already weakened after Google (GOOG US) reported on Wednesday that capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to reach $180 billion, up from $91.5 billion in 2025. Shares of tech giant Qualcomm (QCOM US) fell 8% after the company issued weaker growth guidance, citing that supplier capacity has been redirected toward high-bandwidth memory for data centers.

Traders expect investments in artificial intelligence to take longer to pay off due to rising competition and production bottlenecks, including energy constraints and shortages of memory chips. 

Bitcoin’s slide to $62,300 on Thursday reflects uncertainty around economic growth and US employment, making a rebound toward $90,000 in the near term increasingly unlikely.