Polymarket becomes the most visited decentralized app in January

Polymarket was the most visited decentralized app in January, almost catching up with the traffic on Robinhood. The app reached peak on-chain traffic as well, while expanding its mainstream presence. 

Polymarket was the most visited crypto-native app, logging both peak on-chain volumes and site ranking. The prediction app is almost catching up with Robinhood in popularity. The app’s founder, Shayne Coplan, marked the achievement. 

Polymarket was among the most popular on-chain use cases in January, as activity shifted to the most liquid markets. The app also posted peak USDC volumes, leading to a partnership with Circle for using the native stablecoin version. 

Polymarket still ahead of Kalshi in site visits

Polymarket is still ahead of Kalshi on several metrics, including nearly four times as much site visits. Most of the Polymarket traffic comes from the USA, after the app started offering prediction pairs. 

Polymarket is still drawing international traffic, but has complied with US regulations to offer its brand of probability trading. 

Multiple prediction apps are competing for the top spot. Polymarket has broadened its outreach on social media, while also encouraging smart betting. The platform gained an edge on Kalshi by allowing smart betting and not playing against ‘sharps’. The two apps are competing for user appeal with shopping vouchers and even a free grocery store. 

Most of the expansion in the past month came from retail predictions, totaling over $12B in trading volumes. Polymarket remains the leader in current events and politics predictions, with a big lead against Kalshi outside the sports predictions market.

Mobile usage picked up for Polymarket in the past three months, with gradual growth on all devices. Polymarket search volumes also moved ahead of Kalshi in the past three months. 

Polymarket rises on small-scale bets in January

Polymarket’s activity was driven by the most diverse prediction markets, categorized as ‘other’. 

Sports, politics, and crypto made up the bulk of activity. Top bets as of February 6 included sports events, the potential US strikes against Iran, as well as a short-term 15-minute market on the performance of BTC. 

Polymarket is growing based on highly active players making more than five predictions on average. The platform uses a mix of bots and organic activity, while being heavily promoted through copy-trading and influencers. 

Most of the active trading on Polymarket happens on contested issues, where the odds are between 40% and 60%. The other big subset is almost-resolved issues with a probability of 80% to 90%. Polymarket benefits from both high-visibility issues, as well as bot trading on niche markets or small-scale predictions. 

Open interest on Polymarket has also expanded to a new peak, hovering around $411M. The current open interest is still below the November 2024 record, but remains sustainable and retains a rising trend.