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The post Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Sparks New $50,000 BTC Price Prediction appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin (BTC) gained up to 3% Sunday, but someThe post Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Sparks New $50,000 BTC Price Prediction appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin (BTC) gained up to 3% Sunday, but some

Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Sparks New $50,000 BTC Price Prediction

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Source: BitcoinEthereumNews
2026/02/09 02:17
3 min read
Bitcoin
BTC$66,413.47-0.60%
Notcoin
NOT$0.0003418-3.96%
For feedback or concerns regarding this content, please contact us at crypto.news@mexc.com

Bitcoin (BTC) gained up to 3% Sunday, but some traders refused to believe that the BTC price crash was over.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin price comparisons warn that new macro lows are due if the 2022 bear market continues to repeat.

  • Moving averages and the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are in focus.

  • Analysis says that a carbon copy of 2022 is not a certainty.

Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t happened yet”

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD crossing $71,000, now up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As the weekly close neared, Bitcoin added characteristic volatility, while market participants remained highly skeptical that the rebound would last.

Uploading a chart to X which compared current BTC price action to the 2022 bear market, independent analyst Filbfilb had no good news for bulls.

“Im not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” he commented alongside a chart showing spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $95,300.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X

Analyst Tony Severino held similar ideas, contributing multiple price indicators and concluding that new lows were all but guaranteed.

“$BTC final capitulation hasn’t happened yet,” trader BitBull agreed, like Filbfilb referencing 2022. 

US spot Bitcoin ETF data. Source: Checkonchain

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) currently have an average buy-in cost of $82,000, per data from monitoring resource Checkonchain.

BTC price deja vu continues

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a key bear market feature for Bitcoin based on two other trend lines: the 200-week simple (SMA) and exponential moving averages. 

Related: What crashed Bitcoin? Three theories behind BTC’s trip below $60K

Together, they form a “cloud” of support between $58,000 and $68,000.

In one of his latest market takes at the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of analytics resource Cubic Analytics, argued that here too, the ghost of 2022 was in play.

“In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. Bulls said ‘that’s it, we’ve retested the long-term moving average & can continue higher now.’ Price immediately rebounded on that zone, produced a long wick, & closed above the midpoint of the weekly range,” he summarized.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Franzen note that the market may not replicate the previous bear market “perfectly.”

“The reality is that no one knows what happens next,” he acknowledged.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-not-over-trader-btc-price-real-bottom-50k?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

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