Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $5,035 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal extends its recovery amid a weaker US Dollar (USD) and rising demand from central banks. The delayed release of the US employment report for January will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday refused to rule out the possibility of a criminal investigation of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, if Warsh ends up refusing to lower the interest rates. Concerns over the Fed’s independence continue to drag the Greenback lower and provide some support to the USD-denominated commodity price.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) extended its gold buying reserve for a 15th consecutive month in January. The Chinese central bank’s gold holdings rose to 74.19 million fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million the previous month. Rising demand from China, the world’s largest gold consumer, might contribute to the Gold’s upside.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian described the Friday nuclear talks with the United States (US) as “a step forward,” even as he pushed back against any attempts at intimidation. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi underlined that any dialogue required refraining from threats.
Trump said another meeting would be held early this week, adding that “If they don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.” Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks. Any positive signs of negotiations could undermine the precious metals in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-jumps-above-5-000-as-chinas-gold-buying-drives-demand-202602090031
