Bernstein Downplays Bitcoin Bear Market Jitters, Predicts Rally To $150k This Year

Bernstein analysts have reaffirmed a long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin despite the recent market dip. The current bear market for Bitcoin doesn’t have the same structural damage that occurred during past cycles, the firm said. 

Analysts characterized the decline as driven more by confidence than by a breakdown in fundamentals. They said the broader trend of BTC adoption remains intact and will eventually propel prices higher.

Why Bernstein Says This Bitcoin Bear Market Is Different

In a note to clients, the Bernstein team, led by Gautam Chhugani, said that the current sell-off is the worst bear market Bitcoin has suffered so far. The analysts said the weakness did not change their view of the asset’s underlying investment case. The firm reiterated its Bitcoin price target at $150,000 by the close of 2026.

Analyst Milk Road explained in an X post that Bernstein compared the ongoing Bitcoin bear market to previous sell-offs that had been fueled by large failures. Those cycles are characterized by incidents like Mt. Gox, Terra-Luna, FTX, and Three Arrows Capital. No such systemic implosion or hidden leverage has developed in this phase, the firm said.

Analysts said the recent price weakness is due to a lack of confidence in prices rather than operational stress. They point out that the underlying network for BTC has remained up and running without any problem. No widespread insolvencies or liquidity seizures have occurred, which makes this phase qualitatively different from previous bear markets.

Bernstein also pointed to a more robust institutional alignment as one of the key contrasts in the current cycle. The company cited the approvals and traction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

ETF infrastructure already exists and will take in capital as liquidity improves, the analysts said. They said the system was functioning as designed but being held back by extremely tight financial conditions. Bernstein expects ETF inflows to take off once liquidity loosens.

Earlier, CoinGape reported on mixed feelings towards the fate of Bitcoin. Crypto investor Haseeb Qureshi forecasted that BTC might hit a new all-time high at $150,000 by year-end. The view is in line with Bernstein’s long-term goal. Seasoned trader Peter Brandt is less optimistic and said BTC might experience downward pressure until 2029.

How Liquidity, AI, and Macro Forces Shape BTC Outlook

However, referring to the underperformance of Bitcoin versus gold, the firm said that BTC is still trading like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. It has not graduated into full safe-haven status. Higher rates and tight money came as a boon for assets like commodities and equities, which flipped higher.

Bernstein also dismissed the notion that the value of BTC is waning in an artificial intelligence-driven economy. Blockchains and programmable wallets are part of the broader movement on how people see autonomous digital systems, the analysts said. They said Bitcoin was still well-suited for global, machine-readable financial activity.

Regarding quantum computing risks, Bernstein suggested that long-term cryptographic planning would be required. But the firm says that Bitcoin is not unusually vulnerable. And each of these mission-critical digital systems has the same challenges, and they are going to converge everywhere.

The analysts said companies with large BTC holdings have structured liabilities to support a prolonged downturn. As CoinGape reported earlier, Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company’s balance sheet would only need to be restructured if Bitcoin’s price dropped to $8,000 and remained there for five years. In addition, miner capitulation risk was deemed to be lower due to diversification into AI-linked energy demand.

However, in an X post, the analyst Mike Alfred suggested that BTC might even dip just enough to persuade weaker hands that it has resumed what they believe is its typical four-year cycle. Macro conditions are also significantly different from historical cycles, he added. The setup, which Alfred called a potential “slingshot” move, was one that investors should note.