Red state Republicans increasingly vulnerable thanks to 'scandal and weak fundraising'

Democrats remain bullish about the chances for major gains in the 2026 midterms, and according to a report from NOTUS, two seats in deep-red states are now viewed as vulnerable due to "weak fundraising and scandals."

Cory Mills is a Republican congressman representing Florida's 7th District, where he won reelection in 2024 by 13 points, and Donald Trump bested Kamala Harris by the same margin. Despite that showing, Democrats are emboldened about their chances to unseat him this year due to "allegations of stolen valor, domestic violence and shady business dealings this campaign cycle."

Mills' 2003 receipt of a Bronze Star for delivering "life-saving" aid to fellow soldiers under fire in Iraq has been brought into question, as five individuals who served with him said that they did not remember him being on the scene. Last February, officials with the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington, D.C., confirmed to NOTUS that Mills was under investigation for simple assault, though the congressman denied any wrongdoing.

According NOTUS's new report, "those issues appear to have deteriorated his campaign’s ability to bring in cash."

"Last fall, between October and December, Mills raised a mere $61,000 — incredibly low numbers from a candidate who had never struggled to raise well over $100,000, often more than $200,000, every quarter since his election in 2022," the outlet detailed. "In that same time period, Bale Dalton, his Democratic challenger, a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff, raised more than $343,000."

Dalton is campaigning against Mills on a platform based on affordability, a message that led Democrats to resounding successes in elections elsewhere last year.

“My message is: Life is too expensive, and Cory Mills is too corrupt to fix it,” Dalton told the outlet in a prior interview.

Though not dogged by scandal like Mills, Democrats see a similar opening against. Rep. Andy Ogles, a Republican representing Tennessee's 5th District. Ogles was reelected in 2024 by a margin of 17 points in 2024, while Trump carried the district over Harris by 18. Despite that, he has suffered a severe fundraising deficit against his Democratic challenger, Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, Tennessee.

"Although the district also historically votes Republican, Molder raised well over $1 million in the last two quarters of 2025, compared to Ogles’ $209,000 in that same period, as the congressman attempts to fend off an investigation into alleged campaign finance violations," NOTUS reported.

Mills and Ogles are still generally favored to win reelection later this year, but these issues led the Cook Political Report to downgrade their odds from "solid" to "likely."

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