Solana bulls absorb despite falling prices – Can SOL hold $78.5?

Over the past 72 hours, roughly 1.077 million SOL have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges, significantly reducing readily available sell-side liquidity. This supply contraction has unfolded alongside a sharp price decline,

At press time, Solana [SOL] was trading near $84.47, down 4.37% over the last 24 hours, at press time. Importantly, these withdrawals did not follow a relief rally. 

Instead, market participants reduced exchange exposure while the price weakened, pointing toward strategic repositioning rather than panic-driven selling. 

Although declining exchange balances typically limit sudden spot dumps, the price has not stabilized yet. 

As a result, downside pressure increasingly shifts toward derivatives markets, where leverage rather than spot distribution now drives short-term price behavior.

Solana price grinds within a bearish structure

SOL continues to trade within a clearly defined descending channel, maintaining a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows. 

Price has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 50-day EMA near $119, reinforcing bearish control over the broader trend. Each rebound attempt has stalled beneath prior resistance, preventing any meaningful structure repair. 

Price now trades closer to the lower boundary of the channel, directing attention toward the $78.5 support zone, which previously acted as a demand area. 

While downside momentum has slowed slightly near current levels, structure remains unresolved. Without a decisive reclaim of key moving averages, sellers continue to dictate directional bias.

Momentum conditions reinforce the fragile state of the trend. At the time of writing, the RSI has slipped to around 28, pushing deep into oversold territory. Such readings usually emerge during mature phases of downside moves rather than at confirmed reversal points. 

In this case, RSI has flattened near these lows, suggesting selling pressure may be losing intensity rather than accelerating. However, momentum has not rotated back toward neutral territory. This behavior signals exhaustion, not confirmation. 

Short-term relief attempts may develop, yet without structural improvement, those moves often fade quickly. As long as RSI remains suppressed below key thresholds, bearish control continues to dominate.

Buyers absorb aggressively despite falling prices

Despite persistent price weakness, Spot Taker CVD remains decisively buyer-dominant across the 90-day window. 

Aggressive market buys continue to outweigh sells, indicating absorption rather than capitulation. This divergence highlights an important tension. Buyers actively step in, yet the price continues to trend lower.

Such behavior often reflects a larger supply being distributed into demand rather than retail panic selling. While sustained absorption can eventually stabilize the price, confirmation requires a visible structural response. 

Until that occurs, taker dominance primarily slows downside velocity instead of reversing trend direction, keeping pressure firmly in place.

 Volatility risk ahead?

The Binance SOL/USDT liquidation heatmap shows dense leverage clusters above the current price, concentrated around the $85–$86 region, while SOL trades through a darker, low-liquidity zone near $84.4.

This positioning indicates a buildup of short-side exposure rather than vulnerable longs. If price pushes higher into that band, forced short liquidations could trigger rapid upside acceleration through mechanical buy orders.

However, until price reclaims that zone, liquidation pressure remains dormant. With limited leverage at current levels, the price may continue to compress while waiting for a catalyst.

This setup creates asymmetric risk, where upside volatility could expand quickly if buyers regain control, despite the broader bearish structure still in place.

What lies ahead for Solana?

Solana continues to show signs of supply absorption and slowing downside momentum; however, price structure remains decisively bearish. 

Exchange outflows and buyer-dominant taker activity suggest positioning rather than capitulation, yet failure to reclaim key moving averages keeps downside risks elevated. 

Until structure improves and leverage clears decisively, SOL remains vulnerable to further volatility despite emerging exhaustion signals.

Final Thoughts 

• Supply absorption hints at strategic positioning, yet bearish structure continues to dominate Solana’s directional bias.
• Solana likely needs clear structural repair before internal demand signals can meaningfully influence trend direction.