XLM Technical Analysis Feb 9

XLM’s 24-hour trading volume fell to $61.81 million, remaining below the 7-day average; this low participation indicates that selling pressure in the downtrend is weakening and signals possible accumulation. The opening of CME futures could increase institutional interest, carrying upside potential dependent on institutional volume.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

XLM’s current volume profile reveals a significant decrease in market participation. The 24-hour volume settled at $61.81 million, 27% lower compared to the recent 7-day average of about $85 million. This situation points to weak selling volume, especially as the price declined to the $0.16 level within the downtrend. Instead of the high selling volume expected in a healthy downtrend, low-volume declines are observed, which may hint at retail sellers becoming exhausted.

From a market participation perspective, the volume profile analysis shows Value Area High (VAH) concentrating around $0.1650, while Value Area Low (VAL) approaches $0.1471. As the price shifts toward the lower band of this range, volume nodes thin out; volume buildup around the $0.1562 support level remains limited. This reflects weak participation without a broad POC (Point of Control) distribution. Comparatively, volume reached 120 million dollars during rejection moves at the $0.20 resistance in previous weeks; today’s low level could pave the way for a trend reversal. In a multi-timeframe (MTF) volume context, the 1D chart shows a balanced profile with 3 supports/2 resistances, but the 1W timeframe is dominated by 4 resistances.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Signs of an accumulation phase are becoming increasingly evident. The average 40% decrease in volume during down moves over the last 3 days shows that sellers are losing strength. With RSI at 32.55 approaching the oversold region, the volume divergence is positive: volume stays low as price makes new lows, fitting the classic Wyckoff accumulation schema. Increased volume is expected around the main $0.1362 support (71/100 score); institutional buying could kick in here. CME Group’s launch of Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar futures today (09.02.2026) could trigger institutional liquidity flow for XLM – track spot volume on the XLM spot page.

Additionally, XLM futures volume in the futures market is 15% higher than spot; accumulation of long positions implies buyer dominance rather than distribution. Uptick volumes over the last 10 days exceed downticks by 12%, evidence of hidden accumulation.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risk increases during low-volume rallies. If price tests the $0.1650 resistance (69/100) on low volume, fakeout probability is high. Negative MACD histogram and bearish Supertrend ($0.20 resistance) could trigger distribution. However, the current 61.81M volume does not support large-scale selling; at least 100M+ volume is required for distribution.

Price-Volume Confluence

Price action is partially aligned with volume, but divergences stand out. The 1.22% daily decline occurred on low volume instead of the expected high selling volume – this indicates trend exhaustion. For a healthy uptrend, volume increase is required on up moves; with price below the bearish EMA20 ($0.18), it is supported by low-volume downs. No volume confirmation: rejection at $0.1738 resistance should have been high-volume but was weak. Oversold RSI with volume dry-up signals reversal; the bullish $0.2445 target (31 score) could be reachable with volume confirmation.

Educational note: Price-volume divergence reveals hidden strengths. Low volume in downtrends = weak sellers, low volume in uptrends = weak buyers. In XLM, seller weakness currently dominates, an ideal setup for accumulation.

Big Player Activity

Big player (institutional) activity is gaining momentum with CME news. The futures launch could accelerate whale entries; on-chain data shows 5M+ XLM whale transfers in the last 24 hours. High nodes in the volume profile ($0.1471-$0.1562) signal institutional accumulation – these are typical absorption levels. Net buying in whale wallets increased 8%, no distribution pressure. In MTF, despite 4 resistances on 1W, 3D supports (2S) reflect institutional defense. Caution: BTC dominance rise could leave alts behind, but XLM’s utility (payment network) attracts institutional interest.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $70,973 with -0.68% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish, main supports at $68,871 and $62,910. XLM correlates with BTC at 0.85%; if BTC fails $72,047 resistance, XLM gets pressured at $0.1650. If BTC slips below $68k, XLM $0.1362 test is inevitable, but in a BTC rebound ($78k+), XLM bullish target $0.2445 activates. Dominance caution: Risky for altcoins, but XLM futures volume could recover independently of BTC.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously optimistic: Low participation weakens selling, expect accumulation in the $0.1562-$0.1362 range. Bullish reversal if volume exceeds 80M+, bearish to $0.0636 (22 score) if below 40M. Key: Institutional volume spike with CME effect. Strategy: Long at supports, avoid shorts in low-volume rallies. Overall, volume promises hope beyond price – watch for healthy accumulation.