ARB Technical Analysis Feb 10

ARB is trading within a strong downtrend and is positioned in the oversold region at RSI 24 level. While critical supports are being tested, Bitcoin’s bearish structure creates additional pressure for altcoins; although there is a short-term recovery possibility, the overall risk is high.

Executive Summary

ARB is trading at $0.11 as of February 10, 2026, within a strong downtrend with a -6.13% drop in the last 24 hours. RSI at 24.19 signals oversold while MACD is bearish; it continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.14). Critical supports cluster at $0.0944 and $0.1088, with resistance at $0.1178. Bitcoin’s downtrend is pressuring altcoins; short-term bounce potential is limited, risk/reward unfavorable for longs. Strategically, wait for support breakdown, confirmation required for long positions.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

ARB’s multi-timeframe structure shows a clear downtrend. On the daily (1D) chart, price has declined nearly 70% from recent highs with lower highs/lower lows formation dominant. From the weekly (1W) perspective, it’s moving within a long-term descending channel after the 2025 high ($2.39). Supertrend indicator gives bearish signal and positions $0.15 as resistance. Price remaining below EMA20 ($0.14), EMA50 ($0.16), and EMA200 ($0.25) strengthens short-term bearish bias. Similar downward momentum is observed on the 3-day (3D) timeframe, indicating trend sustainability. Volume-supported declines confirm the trend’s health.

Structural Levels

7 strong levels identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: Supports mainly in lower bands (1D: 2S, 3D:1S, 1W:2S), resistances on top (1D:1R, 3D:1R, 1W:2R). Lower boundary of main descending channel at $0.0944 (76/100 score), swing lows at $0.1088 (68/100). Upper channel boundary and EMA20 intersection form $0.1178 resistance (67/100). These structural levels indicate an 80% probability of price reaction within this range; breakouts are critical for trend change.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 24.19 in oversold territory (below 30), providing classic signal for short-term bounce but often leads to fakeouts in downtrends. No daily RSI divergence, bearish momentum dominant. MACD histogram negative and expanding below zero line; signal line crossover bearish. Stochastic %K below %D line, oversold but momentum reset. CCI in -180s, confirming extreme selling. Overall momentum confluence bearish, but RSI oversold carries short-term reversal risk.

Trend Indicators

EMA stack bearish: Price below EMA20 ($0.14), all EMAs in death cross. Supertrend(10,3) bearish flip at $0.15, acting as trailing stop resistance. Trading below Ichimoku Cloud, Tenkan-Kijun death cross active. ADX 35+ indicates strong trend, -DI dominating +DI. These indicators point to 70+% probability of trend continuation.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports: $0.1088 (68/100, nearby swing low and 0.618 Fib), $0.0944 (76/100, channel lower boundary and 1W support). Extra: $0.08 psychological and 2024 lows. Resistances: $0.1178 (67/100, EMA20 intersection), $0.15 Supertrend, $0.1888 bull target (low score 6/100). Price currently at $0.11, testing $0.1088; breakdown leads to $0.0944. Volume increase required for resistance breakout, probability low. Multi-TF confluence levels enhance reaction strength.

Volume and Market Participation

24h volume $96.61M, down 20% from previous days but relatively high during downmove; confirms selling pressure. OBV in downtrend, no divergence. VWAP below $0.115, institutional selling signal. Chaikin Money Flow negative, capital outflow dominant. Spot/futures volume ratio balanced, leverage unwinds observed. Volume profile shows POC (Point of Control) in $0.1088-$0.12 range; low participation may limit recovery.

Risk Assessment

Bull target $0.1888 (6/100 score, low probability), bear target $0.0036 (22/100). From $0.11 R/R: 1:1.5 for longs (risk to $0.1088), but negative EV with bearish bias. Key risks: BTC downside breakout, global risk-off, low liquidity. Volatility 8%+, stop-loss below $0.1088. Position size max 1-2%, short bias preferred. Likely scenarios: 60% bear continuation, 25% bounce to $0.1178, 15% reversal.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $69,579 in downtrend (-2.48% 24h), Supertrend bearish. ARB-BTC correlation 0.85+, BTC supports $68,341/$62,910 breakdown pushes ARB to $0.09. If BTC resistances $70,936/$77,356 broken, ARB gets bounce, but dominance rise creates alt pressure. BTC caution level: below $68k > ARB short signal.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

ARB chart holistically bearish: Downtrend, oversold momentum, volume-supported decline, and BTC negativity create confluence. If short-term $0.1088 support holds, probe to $0.1178, but breakdown brings $0.0944 test. Strategy: Wait for breakdown above $0.1178 for shorts, longs only with divergence + volume. Risk management critical, follow ARB Spot Analysis and ARB Futures Analysis. Long-term wait-and-see, macro improvement required.