Dalio warns CBDCs could usher in global financial surveillance

Financial veteran Ray Dalio raised concerns about the rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), warning that they could usher in a new era of global surveillance. He cautioned that although CBDCs are efficient, they may also give governments unmatched access to monitor and regulate financial transactions.

In an interview on the Tucker Carlson Show on Monday, Dalio said the country is at “stage five” of a six-stage cycle, “sort of at the brink but not over the brink,”. He emphasized that traditional systems are strained by rising debt, partisan polarization, and shifts in global power.

Dalio highlights risks and limits of CBDCs globally

In the interview, Dalio stated, “I think it will be done,” referring to the likely implementation of central bank digital currencies. He said that “of course it’s easy to transact” with digital currency, implying that convenience is a significant factor in its uptake. 

However, he cautioned that there are trade-offs associated with this simplicity of use, particularly regarding privacy.

Regarding privacy, Dalio stated that CBDCs are a highly effective government control tool and that there will be no privacy with them. He clarified that all digital currency transactions will be recognized, emphasizing that authorities can see every payment. He said that might be an effective way to monitor both legal and illicit activity.

Dalio emphasized the control aspect of digital currencies, noting that governments might use them to enforce laws or collect taxes, stating that they “can tax that way” and “take your money.”

He raised concerns about the potential worldwide use of CBDCs, pointing out that foreign owners of digital currency “may feel… if you’re a Frenchman… they could take your money.” Dalio linked CBDCs to geopolitical power, which allows a government to exert control over non-citizens. He explained that this is one of the risks associated with granting a state complete visibility and control over finances.

Dalio did not predict that CBDCs would take over every economy. He told Carlson, “I don’t think that you’re going to see the development of central bank digital currencies to be of a magnitude that it’s going to be… that big of a deal.” 

Although digital currencies “will be done” and expand, Dalio believes their transformational potential is limited. 

During the interview, Dalio explained the workings of the monetary system, drawing comparisons between current issues and previous crises, such as the stagflation of the 1970s. He further highlighted the need for hard assets like gold as a store of wealth amid vulnerabilities in fiat currencies.

The billionaire also explored other topics, including the dangers of internal political deadlock, the deterioration of global geopolitical institutions, and broader historical cycles in which rising and declining countries have frequently clashed. He argued that the U.S. must take decisive action to preserve stability.

Dalio warns of rising global capital tensions

Dalio’s concerns about CBDCs align with his warnings about the global financial landscape, where control over capital is increasingly a tool of geopolitical influence.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Dalio said the world is on the cusp of a capital war. He stated, “We are on the brink. That means not in, but it means we are quite close to [a capital war] and it would be very easy to go over the brink into a capital war, because there are mutual fears.”

Dalio’s warning came at a moment of growing global tension.

Dalio cited U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to purchase Greenland as a potential point of contention between the U.S. and Europe. He specifically stated that European owners of U.S.-denominated assets might be afraid of sanctions, and that the United States has a “reciprocal fear” that it will no longer be able to obtain foreign funding or demand for its assets.

According to Citi, approximately 80% of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries between April and November 2025 were made by European buyers.

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