Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Drops 16% on Earnings Miss and Partnership Delays

TLDR

• Cleveland-Cliffs stock plunged 16% to $12.31 after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.3 billion, missing the $4.6 billion consensus estimate
• Full-year 2025 EBITDA crashed to $37 million from $773 million in 2024 due to weak auto demand and Canadian market struggles
• Investors disappointed by vague POSCO partnership timeline despite ongoing due diligence for potential equity investment
• Company projects 16.8 million tons of steel shipments in 2026, up from 16.2 million tons in 2025
• Management expects first-half 2026 POSCO deal and dramatically better results from improved trade environment

Cleveland-Cliffs shares collapsed 16% Monday following fourth-quarter results that missed expectations on multiple fronts. The stock closed at $12.31 after gapping down from $14.73 in premarket trading.

The steel producer reported Q4 EBITDA loss of $21 million with revenue of $4.3 billion. Analysts had expected a $7 million loss on revenue of $4.6 billion. The 6% revenue shortfall sparked the selloff.

Fourth-quarter steel shipments totaled 3.8 million tons, essentially flat year-over-year. Volume growth remained stagnant despite higher benchmark steel prices.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., CLF

Full-year 2025 EBITDA of $37 million represented a massive drop from 2024’s $773 million. CEO Lourenco Goncalves cited weak auto production, an unprofitable slab contract, and soft Canadian demand as key headwinds.

Investors Wanted POSCO News

The earnings miss wasn’t the only disappointment. Many investors had positioned for concrete news about the company’s strategic discussions with Korean steel maker POSCO.

The potential partnership could include an equity investment in Cleveland-Cliffs. Management has been discussing the deal for months, raising expectations for an announcement.

Instead, Goncalves only confirmed that POSCO continues due diligence. He expects an agreement in the first half of 2026 but offered no specific timeline or terms.

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson captured investor frustration. “They got process, not progress,” he wrote about the vague update.

The company did beat adjusted EPS estimates, posting a loss of $0.43 per share versus the expected $0.62 loss. That positive surprise failed to offset concerns about revenue and the POSCO situation.

2026 Outlook Calls for Recovery

Management painted an optimistic picture for the current year. Goncalves said the three main problems from 2025 have all improved.

Steel prices have climbed to roughly $975 per ton from $760 a year earlier. President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs have supported pricing.

Cleveland-Cliffs forecasts 16.8 million tons of steel shipments for 2026. That marks a 3% increase from 2025’s 16.2 million tons. Capital spending will remain around $700 million.

The company maintains approximately $3.3 billion in liquidity. Debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.41 with a current ratio of 2.04.

Wall Street analysts project 2026 EBITDA of $1.5 billion, a huge jump from 2025’s meager results. The consensus rating remains “Hold” with a $13.70 average price target.

Three analysts rate the stock a Buy, five have Hold ratings, and two recommend selling. KeyCorp recently downgraded shares from Overweight to Sector Weight in early January.

Before Monday’s drop, Cleveland-Cliffs had gained 47% over the trailing 12 months. Rising steel prices and tariff optimism fueled that rally.

The stock trades with a market cap of $6.09 billion. Institutional investors hold roughly 68% of shares outstanding.

The post Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Drops 16% on Earnings Miss and Partnership Delays appeared first on Blockonomi.