Ethereum’s MVRV Z score has dropped into a “capitulation zone,” according to analyst Joao Wedson, who shared an Alphafractal chart dated Feb. 9. The chart tracks Ethereum’s price in black and the MVRV Z score in blue, a measure that compares market value to realized value and then standardizes the gap.
Ethereum MVRV Z Score Chart. Source: Alphafractal via Joao Wedson on X
Wedson said the most recent low reached -0.42. He also pointed to the deepest reading on record, -0.76, which he said printed in December 2018. As a result, he framed the current decline as clear stress, while he argued it still falls short of the intensity seen at major cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
The chart shows prior capitulation stretches when the Z score slipped below zero and stayed compressed for long periods. Meanwhile, earlier cycle peaks lined up with sharp Z score spikes, which appeared during fast price expansions. That contrast is why the indicator often gets used as a valuation stress gauge rather than a short term timing tool.
Wedson described capitulation as a process, not a single moment. He said markets often attempt rebounds that fail, then grind lower as weaker holders exit and volatility clears out positioning. However, he added that history suggests the metric can still move deeper into negative territory before a structural low forms.
On the latest reading, the Z score sits near the lower band again while price remains well above the lowest levels shown on the long term chart. That combination supports his main point: Ethereum shows strain on chain, but the data does not yet mirror the most extreme washout phases from prior cycles.
Ethereum chart highlights 2.1K as key line for bounce
Ethereum’s ETHUSD chart showed price testing a long watched $2,100 area after a sharp drop, according to a TradingView snapshot shared by Daan Crypto Trades on X. The analyst said the $2.1K zone has acted as an important level “over the past few years” and added that bulls need to reclaim it for a relief bounce to keep going.
Ethereum U.S. Dollar Chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades on X
The chart, dated Feb. 9, showed ETH opening near $2,038, trading up to about $2,101, and then slipping to around $2,011 before closing near $2,083. That left price below the $2.1K mark after the session’s attempt to push back above it faded.
When zoomed out, the same chart mapped repeated reactions around the low $2,000s during earlier swings, with multiple bounces and breakdowns clustering near that band. It also marked higher resistance zones above, including a broader mid $2,000s area and a prior range nearer the low $3,000s, which price would need to clear before revisiting the 2021 peak labeled near the top of the chart.
Daan Crypto Trades framed the $2.1K line as the near term decision point. If price retakes that level and holds, the move would support the idea that the drop reset the range rather than breaking it, while a failure to reclaim it would keep the rebound fragile and leave ETH trading under a level the market has repeatedly treated as a pivot.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14462/ethereum-price-prediction-2-100-critical-as-z-score-drops
