JPMorgan Lowers Price Target for COIN Stock to $290 Ahead of Coinbase’s Earnings

COIN stock slipped 1.15% on Tuesday after a major Wall Street bank revised its outlook on the crypto exchange operator. The move came ahead of Coinbase Global Inc.’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, which are scheduled for release after market close on February 12.

JPMorgan Lowers Target on COIN Stock 

The bank trimmed its target for Coinbase stock to $290, from a previous $399, which would represent a 27% decrease—but reiterated its “overweight” rating. The revision suggests a softer cryptocurrency backdrop, JPMorgan Chase analyst Kenneth Worthington notes, though the firm’s long-term positioning remains intact.

The new target takes into consideration weaker crypto prices, trading volumes, and market capitalization in digital assets, analyst Kenneth Worthington said. These elements are likely to impact the exchange’s near-term financial performance, he observed.

According to a report by Tanay Ved, the forthcoming results come after a robust Q3. Coinbase generated $1.87 billion in total revenue in Q3, an increase of 25% over the previous quarter and a 55% rise from a year ago. Even so, Coinbase stock has dropped in concert with the broader crypto markets.

COIN stock price is currently trading at around $166. That level is roughly 61% below its high in July 2025. The drop, which has been met with a decline in risk appetite for investors and which has led to lower prices for digital currencies across the board.

JPMorgan anticipates that Coinbase will report a sharp drop in year-over-year fourth-quarter earnings per share. The guidance is due to reduced trading revenues from cryptocurrency, as well as lower quarterly average market values during the period.

Coinbase’s biggest, and most cyclical, category is transaction revenue. In recent quarters, the business has represented about 50% to 70% of total revenue. This comprises retail and institutional trading in spot and futures markets, as well as other transaction-related fees.

How Coinbase’s Activity Shifted in Q4

Coinbase handled roughly $256 billion in spot trading volume during Q4. That number was 12 percent lower than the same quarter a year ago. October’s volatility spiked volumes, but November and December saw a fall in volumes as Bitcoin retreated from near $126,000 highs. The Bitcoin decline also notably contributed to the decline in the COIN stock over the last few months. 

Bitcoin’s share of trading volume went up, and Ethereum and other assets lost share. This shift indicates less retail activity in the latter part of the quarter. As CoinGape reported, JPMorgan now expects no Fed rate cuts in 2026. However, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said gold’s sharp outperformance is making Bitcoin more attractive on a relative basis. He added that the shift strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a store-of-value asset.

Derivatives continued to gain importance. Coinbase’s purchase of Deribit in August brought in $52 million in revenue over six weeks during Q3. By Q4, Deribit had its first full reporting period under Coinbase ownership.

The combined futures and options volume across Coinbase and Deribit hit roughly $1.25 trillion in Q4. Transaction revenue, determined by spot and derivatives activity, is projected at $978 million compared to Q3’s $1.046 billion.

On the whole, analysts expect Coinbase to report total fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.77 billion in the period, about 5% lower on a sequential basis. 

Polymarket data shows that traders are now pricing in a 56% chance of the top crypto exchange beating its quarterly earnings, which would mark a positive for the COIN Stock. However, it is worth noting that the odds have dropped from above 70% following JPMorgan’s target cut. 

In an X post, analyst Mind Investor outlined two key resolution zones based on the recent correction in COIN stock. He added that increased uncertainty could also present an opportunity and estimated a potential upside of about 300% from current levels.