AVAX’s rally odds – Here’s why traders should look out for liquidity

The AVAX ecosystem has continued to attract investor attention over the last few weeks, despite a quiet market. For example – On 10 February, activity across the sector slowed down significantly.

However, for its part, Avalanche remained as active as ever. In fact, the chain recorded $135 million in monthly net inflows and led the way among the market’s blockchains.

Addiitonally, its inflow trends stood out clearly too. Weekly inflows climbed to $60 million, while daily inflows totaled $7 million. Thanks to the same, Avalanche was ranked fourth in terms of both weekly and daily net inflows.

Hence, the question – Are more significant market moves ahead?

Active Addresses surprise for AVAX

That’s not all either. Avalanche’s [AVAX] active addresses have surged by over 242% since early January, surpassing all prior 2024 levels and hitting new highs.

According to Token Terminal data, monthly active addresses climbed beyond 1.6 million – A clear sign of intensified network engagement. Daily figures pushed even higher on 10 February, hitting record peaks above 1.6–1.7 million on the C-Chain.

This surge occurred despite the price action punishing holders, reflecting fractured confidence and widespread bearish sentiment. And yet, participants have continued to transact robustly, expanding usage despite deteriorating market mood.

Put simply, real adoption and on-chain conviction deepened even as surface-level narratives turned pessimistic. This is the kind of classic decoupling that often precedes reversals on the price charts. 

Will the structural support hold on?

AVAX’s price action on the daily time frame told a brutal, unforgiving story. At press time, the altcoin had retraced over 84% from its October peak before stabilizing around the $8.85–$11.86 support zone.

Meanwhile, sellers showed clear exhaustion near the $8-level after sustained downside pressure. Therefore, downside momentum weakened as selling intensity gradually faded.

Notably, the MACD flashed a bullish cross directly at the support level during this phase. At the same time, the RSI remained deeply oversold at 29.87 too. As a result, the RSI holding at such depressed levels suggested AVAX was at or around a local bottom.

Worth noting, however, that technical signals alone might not be enough to shift market structure.

For a meaningful expansion to begin, volume must be expected to rise clearly. Without confirmation, the setup will risk becoming another failure, rather than a true reversal.

Upside liquidity concentrated at $10–$12

Downside liquidity had largely been cleared before 10 February 2026. As a result, the 2-week liquidation data showed growing upside liquidity clustered between $10 and $12 at press time. 

This imbalance shifted attention upwards. Not because of optimism, but mechanics. Market makers often target such zones with ruthless efficiency.

Therefore, volatility might just be inevitable, rather than optional. As it stands, the liquidity is above the price, daring the market to react. Only time will tell if this liquidity can ignite the most awaited expansion for AVAX.

Final Thoughts

• On-chain data reflected tension, not recovery, as capital and activity contradicted the damage seen on the price charts
• AVAX may be primed for volatility, driven by liquidity.