XRP Price History Shows 28% Bounce Setup — Here’s How

XRP price today is trading near $1.38, showing early signs of stabilization after weeks of weakness. On the chart, a familiar rebound pattern has started forming, similar to past setups that led to strong rallies. But on-chain and derivatives data are not confirming the optimism.

Buying pressure has dropped sharply, long-term holders are pulling back, and leverage risks remain high. This creates a conflict between what the chart suggests and how investors are actually behaving.

XRP Price Builds a Familiar Rebound Pattern

Since late January, XRP has been forming a structure that previously preceded major recoveries.

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Between January 31 and February 11, the price made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed higher lows. RSI measures buying and selling strength. When price weakens, but RSI improves, it signals that selling pressure is fading and momentum may be turning.

A similar setup, also on the 12-hour chart, appeared in late December 2025.

At that time, XRP showed the same divergence before reclaiming the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on January 2. After that reclaim, the price rallied over 28%. Now, the structure looks similar again. EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices to show short-term momentum. 

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The current divergence suggests that downside momentum is slowing. If XRP manages to reclaim the $1.50 zone, which aligns closely with the 20 EMA and prior resistance, it could attract stronger buying interest.

But the on-chain data does not support the rebound theory. At least, not yet.

Exchange Flows and Holders Show Buying Has Collapsed

On-chain metrics explain why the rebound signal is struggling.

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One key indicator is Exchange Net Position Change. This measures how the total amount of XRP held on exchanges has changed over the past 30 days. In simple terms, it shows whether exchange balances are rising or falling on a monthly basis. When the number is strongly negative, exchange balances are shrinking, usually showing accumulation or outflows.

On February 8, XRP recorded net outflows of around 107 million tokens. By February 11, outflows had dropped to about 16 million tokens.

That is an 85% collapse in buying pressure. This means investors are no longer reducing exchange balances at the same pace. Demand has weakened sharply, even as the chart flashed a bullish setup.

The same pattern appears in Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks wallets holding XRP for more than 155 days.

On February 1, long-term holders were adding around 337 million XRP. By February 11, their accumulation had fallen to about 128 million XRP.

That represents a drop of more than 60%.

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In simple terms, exchange balances are rising, clearly led by weakening long-term accumulation. The investors who usually support strong rebounds are staying cautious. But why?

Derivatives Risk Explains Why Holders Are Hesitating

In the Binance XRP/USDT perpetual market, medium-term liquidation data shows that short positions dominate. Over the next 30 days, short-side liquidation exposure stands near $148 million, while long-side exposure is closer to $83 million.

This shows that traders are leaning defensive and positioning for downside risk. Long-term holders seem to be siding with the majority here.

Short-term positioning tells another story.

On the one-day timeframe, this time on Gate, long liquidations are near $63.9 million, while shorts are around $51 million. This means 30% more positions are currently exposed on the long side. If the XRP price drops even slightly, led by a weak and fearful market, long positions could be forced out quickly, leading to a deeper crash.

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Long-term holders are aware of this risk, as long liquidations have previously impacted optimism. Therefore, instead of chasing a weak rebound, they are waiting for confirmation and siding with the medium-term positions, mainly shorts. This is why spot buying pressure has not returned despite the bullish divergence.

XRP Price Levels To Track Now

With technical optimism clashing with weak conviction, price levels now matter most. The key downside level sits near $1.34.

This zone aligns with the largest long liquidation cluster. If XRP closes below $1.34, it could trigger forced selling and invalidate the rebound structure. In that case, the price could slide toward $1.12. On the upside, $1.50 remains the critical barrier.

This level aligns with the 20 EMA and a psychological resistance. A sustained move above $1.50 would likely restore confidence and bring long-term buyers back. Without that breakout, bounces are likely to remain unstable.

Right now, XRP is stuck between improving momentum and falling conviction. The chart says pressure is easing.

On-chain data says demand is missing. And derivatives data says risk remains high. Until XRP holds above $1.34 and reclaims $1.50, the rebound thesis remains weak.