Banks trim targets ahead of earnings

Investor nerves intensified ahead of the next coinbase stock update, as Wall Street reassessed expectations while crypto markets stayed under pressure.

Coinbase shares drop ahead of earnings

Coinbase shares slid on Wednesday, falling about 6% in the session and trading near $152. However, the weakness has been building for months, with the stock now down roughly 34% since January. The move came as investors positioned ahead of the latest Coinbase earnings report due on Thursday.

Wall Street desks highlighted that traders are closely tracking transaction revenue, since it typically follows crypto trading volumes. Moreover, analysts pointed to weaker Bitcoin prices and softer stablecoin flows as near-term headwinds that could weigh on top-line momentum.

At the same time, Coinbase faces questions over insider activity. VanEck‘s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, noted that CEO Brian Armstrong continued to sell shares from April 2025 to January 2026. He estimated disposals of more than 1.5 million shares for about $550 million.

Sigel highlighted that the largest single transaction occurred on June 25, 2025, when 336,265 shares changed hands at $355.37 each. He also pointed to a later sale on January 5, 2026, involving 40,000 shares at a price of $254.92, underscoring how leadership has used prior rallies to trim holdings.

Banks cut targets but keep bullish stance

Despite the recent pullback, several major banks still hold constructive views on Coinbase, even as they lower their price targets. JPMorgan reduced its year-end target for the shares to $290 from $399, citing reduced trading activity and a shrinking stablecoin supply. That said, the firm maintained its buy rating, signaling confidence in the long-term franchise.

Cantor Fitzgerald also revised expectations, trimming its target to $221 from $277 while keeping a positive stance. Moreover, Citi cut its own target to $400 from $505, but it too reiterated a buy rating. Analysts across the group flagged intensifying competition from overseas exchanges seeking U.S. listings as another structural challenge.

The shift in targets reflects a more cautious view on trading volumes and fee capture in the near term. However, banks still see upside potential if market conditions stabilize and retail and institutional activity recover from current subdued levels.

Bitcoin pullback and stablecoin flows under scrutiny

The latest slide in Coinbase shares has closely tracked a broader retreat across digital assets. Over the past month, Bitcoin has fallen about 27%, trading near $67,000. This bitcoin price decline has cooled speculative appetite and narrowed spreads, pressuring revenue for trading platforms.

Analysts tied their revised estimates to softer market prices and weaker transaction demand across spot and derivatives markets. Moreover, they highlighted a lower stablecoin supply and subdued stablecoin flow trends, which together suggest reduced on-chain activity and funding liquidity.

Because Coinbase earns a significant portion of its revenue from trading, volumes usually move in tandem with wider crypto market swings. That link can amplify transaction revenue pressure around earnings dates when both prices and volumes drift lower, leaving investors more sensitive to guidance and commentary.

Previous results frame expectations for the new report

Market participants will benchmark the upcoming results against a strong prior-period performance. In the third quarter last year, Coinbase reported transaction revenue above $1 billion. The company also delivered earnings per share of $1.44, beating a consensus forecast of $1.09.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, analysts now project earnings per share of about $1.05. However, investors will pay as much attention to management commentary on trading volumes, fee levels, and stablecoin dynamics as to the headline numbers. The next coinbase stock update could therefore set the tone for how the market values the broader crypto exchange stocks segment.

The latest round of target cuts arrived just before the company issues its new figures and outlook. In the near term, sentiment around Coinbase will likely hinge on whether management can reassure investors about demand trends and competitive positioning while crypto markets remain volatile.

In summary, the stock’s 34% slide since January, combined with lower price targets and a 27% Bitcoin retreat, has sharpened focus on earnings, trading volumes, and stablecoin-related metrics as key drivers for the next phase.