Bitcoin Price Prediction: Hovering at $66K – CPI Today: Bullish Catalyst or Bearish Trigger?

The US Consumer Price Index data is due out later on Friday. The figures are forecast to remain steady, and as long as this is the case, risk assets such as Bitcoin would probably not be adversely affected. However, if the data is unexpectedly negative, look for the Bitcoin price to potentially lead the stock market downward.

$BTC price about to break out of falling wedge

Source: TradingView

The short-term time frame for $BTC reveals that the price is moving within a small falling wedge. Having arrived at the narrowing end of the wedge, the price should make its decision as to which direction it will break out.

Given that this pattern is a bullish one, it is more likely that the breakout will be to the upside, although with the US CPI data release due at 8:30 a.m. ET today, there is the possibility of some volatility leading into and out of the release timing.

A positive data release could help the bulls to springboard back above the major $69,000 resistance level, while a negative one could see the price fall back down towards the $60,000 horizontal support.

RSI matches Covid crash low

Source: TradingView

The daily chart illustrates how the $BTC price could be taking hold below the $69,000 support level. Nevertheless, as already mentioned, the falling wedge pattern could help to boost the price back up again. 

That said, it’s in the Relative Strength Index where there is a sign that a bottom may be in. The fall in this indicator all the way down to nearly touch the 15:00 level is particularly notable, given that this matches the lowest reading since the Covid crash, and is only surpassed by the lows of the 2018 bear market.

Has bearish divergence fully played out?

Source: TradingView

The weekly chart view for the $BTC price reveals the bull market trendline. Other trendlines have been drawn but all have failed. This one is the absolute last trend that is still intact for this bull market, so holding it is crucial. It should be noted that the 200-week SMA is travelling along this trendline, also providing bull market support.

At the bottom of the chart, the RSI once again highlights just how low the indicator has dropped. Just a sliver away from matching the bear market low in 2022, it is to be wondered just how much lower could it go?

However, one thing that is apparent here is the bearish divergence that began in early 2024. Could that divergence be playing out now with the 52% drop from the all-time high? Could it have already delivered its bearish payload, or could there be more to come?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.