Coinbase (COIN) Stock Jumps After Hours Despite Missing Q4 Estimates

TLDR

• Coinbase posted a $667 million Q4 2025 net loss, its first quarterly loss in two years, missing EPS estimates by 26 cents with 66 cents versus expected 92 cents.
• Revenue declined 21.5% year-over-year to $1.78 billion while transaction revenue plummeted 37% to $982.7 million as Bitcoin dropped 30% during the quarter.
• Subscription revenue grew 13% to $727.4 million, providing partial offset to falling trading volumes during the crypto market downturn.
• Q1 2026 guidance shows $420 million in transaction revenue through February 10 with subscription revenue expected between $550-$630 million.
• Shares gained 2.9% after hours to $145.18 but remain down 40% year-to-date amid ongoing crypto market weakness.

Coinbase reported its first quarterly loss since Q3 2023, posting a $667 million deficit for the fourth quarter of 2025. The crypto exchange missed analyst expectations across key metrics as digital asset prices tumbled.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

Earnings per share came in at 66 cents, falling 26 cents short of the 92-cent consensus. Revenue dropped 21.5% from the prior year to $1.78 billion, below the $1.85 billion estimate.

The miss ended an eight-quarter profitability streak for the company. Bitcoin fell nearly 30% during Q4, sliding from $126,080 in early October to under $88,500 by December 31.

Transaction Revenue Takes Major Hit

Trading activity suffered as crypto prices declined throughout the quarter. Transaction revenue dropped 37% year-over-year to $982.7 million, missing the $1.02 billion forecast.

The figure also declined from $1.046 billion in Q3 2025 and $1.556 billion in Q4 2024. Lower volumes reflected reduced investor appetite as Bitcoin continued falling into 2026.

Bitcoin is down 25.6% year-to-date to $65,760 after briefly crashing below $60,000 earlier this month. The price decline directly impacted trading fees, Coinbase’s primary revenue source.

Subscription and services revenue rose 13% to $727.4 million from $641.1 million a year earlier. This segment includes staking rewards, custody fees, and blockchain infrastructure services.

Q1 Guidance Shows Recovery Uncertainty

Coinbase provided early Q1 2026 metrics showing $420 million in transaction revenue generated through February 10. Management expects subscription revenue to range between $550 million and $630 million for the full quarter.

That represents a decline from Q4’s $727.4 million, suggesting continued pressure on the business. CFO Aleshia Haas said the company would maintain flat expenses for tech, sales, and marketing compared to Q4.

Full-year 2025 revenue climbed 9.4% to $6.88 billion, showing strength before the Q4 downturn. The company said over 12% of all global crypto now sits on its platform.

Stock Reaction Defies Disappointing Results

Shares rose 2.9% in after-hours trading to $145.18 despite the earnings miss. The stock had fallen 7.9% during regular hours to close at $141.10.

Year-to-date, Coinbase stock is down 40% as crypto market turbulence weighs on sentiment. The after-hours bounce suggests investors may be looking past near-term weakness.

Through February 10, transaction revenue of $420 million indicates Q1 trading volumes remain under pressure as Bitcoin hovers around $65,760.

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