CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's "final" bear market bottom is around $55,000
PANews reported on February 14th, citing The Block, that on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's "final" bear market bottom is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. Analysis shows that Bitcoin's realized price has historically been a major support area during bear markets, and the current price is still more than 25% above that level. Although Bitcoin's realized losses reached $5.4 billion on February 5th when it fell to $62,000, a new high since March 2023, a structural bottom is not yet near. Monthly accumulated realized losses (in BTC) are still far below bear market bottom levels: currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.
Several key valuation metrics have also not entered historically bearish territory: the MVRV ratio has not reached extreme undervaluation; the NUPL metric has not reached the historical cycle low of approximately 20% of unrealized losses; long-term holders are currently selling at around break-even, whereas historically they typically incurred 30%-40% losses at the bottom of a bear market; approximately 55% of Bitcoin supply remains profitable, while cycle lows typically see 45%-50%. CryptoQuant's bull/bear cycle indicator is currently in a "bear market phase" rather than an "extreme bear market phase," which historically typically lasts for several months and marks the beginning of a bottoming-out phase.
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