CRCL faces scrutiny as Vanguard 13F flags $400M loss

Vanguard 13F: CRCL value below cost basis, $400M unrealized loss

According to BlockBeats News, Vanguard Group, the world’s second‑largest asset manager, disclosed in its latest SEC 13F that its Circle (CRCL) stake is valued below cost, implying an unrealized loss exceeding $400 million. An unrealized loss reflects a mark‑to‑market decline that has not been realized through a sale.

The filing-based gap indicates Vanguard’s recorded cost basis for CRCL materially exceeds the position’s quarter‑end market value. While 13F reports show holdings and fair values, they do not alone determine investment intent or timing.

Why it matters: USDC reserve interest income dependence

Circle’s earnings engine is highly sensitive to interest rates because most revenue is linked to interest on USDC reserves. As reported by Barron’s, Mizuho’s Dan Dolev cautioned that this concentration leaves profits vulnerable if the federal reserve eases policy.

The magnitude of the 13F mark helps frame that risk, given the company’s rate exposure and investor focus on income durability. “Vanguard’s disclosed unrealized loss of over $400 million, reflecting a slide from a cost basis of about $739.6 million to $339.4 million for 5.65 million shares,” said AInvest.

Lower policy rates would likely compress yield on reserve assets and reduce interest income, challenging revenue without offsetting fee growth. In this setup, valuation multiples can swing with rate expectations.

Disclosures of large mark‑to‑market gaps typically refocus investors on durability of earnings, liquidity of holdings, and the path of policy rates. For CRCL, the debate centers on rate sensitivity, USDC usage patterns, and distribution concentration risk.

As reported by MarketWatch, J.P. Morgan upgraded CRCL after a steep post‑results decline, citing solid business metrics and broader financial‑services use cases for USDC, while noting market share appears to be plateauing. That dispersion in views underscores how small changes in adoption or rates can shift valuation.

Volatility in digital‑asset markets also feeds through to sentiment around stablecoin platforms. Against that backdrop, investors may emphasize disclosures, regulatory signals, and partner resilience as near‑term risk anchors.

Rate path and earnings sensitivity

Earnings tied to reserve yields are mechanically rate‑dependent. If front‑end yields fall, interest income likely declines unless balances, asset mix, or fee revenues offset. Sensitivity analyses will track policy expectations and balance growth.

USDC adoption, partner concentration, regulation signals

Adoption beyond trading, such as cross‑border payments, could diversify revenue and stabilize valuation. According to LBank, distribution appears concentrated among key partners like Coinbase, which heightens channel risk if partner dynamics change.

At the time of this writing, CRCL was quoted near $54.05 in USD on Capital.com on Feb. 4, 2026, for contextual reference. Such market data may be delayed and is not investment advice.

FAQ about Vanguard 13F filing

How will potential Fed rate cuts affect Circle’s earnings from USDC reserve interest income?

Lower rates would compress reserve yields, likely reducing interest income unless offset by higher balances, mix changes, or diversified fees.

What are the latest analyst ratings and price targets for CRCL from Mizuho, J.P. Morgan, and William Blair?

Recent coverage includes Mizuho: Underperform; J.P. Morgan: upgrade to Overweight; William Blair: Outperform. Targets varied; figures are omitted here to avoid signaling forecasts.