Altcoin Markets Show Recurring 120-Day Downtrend Cycle as Base Formation Begins

TLDR:

• Altcoin markets have experienced two identical 120-day downtrends since January 2024 during peak optimism phases. 
• Total3 market cap shows rally-distribution-bleed-reset pattern rather than continuous upward bull cycle movement. 
• Price has returned to major support zone while RSI sits at depressed levels after months of declining momentum. 
• Historical pattern suggests capitulation windows occur when 120-day cycles repeat within same market structure.

Altcoin markets have consistently followed a 120-day downtrend pattern over the past two years, according to recent market analysis.

The cycle appears during periods of peak optimism and extends into full four-month corrections. Traders holding positions in recent drawdowns may find relief in understanding this recurring timeframe. The pattern suggests markets move in predictable blocks rather than continuous upward momentum.

Recurring Downtrend Structure in Altcoin Markets

Total3 market capitalization data reveals a consistent rhythm since January 2024. Markets experience sharp rallies followed by extended distribution phases.

The first quarter of 2024 saw altcoins surge before entering a 120-day decline. During these periods, bounces get sold, and sentiment turns negative.

Later cycles showed identical behavior. A fourth-quarter rally materialized before another 120-day correction pushed into early 2026. The duration matched previous patterns almost exactly. This repetition indicates structure rather than random volatility.

Market observers from Our Crypto Talk noted how most participants only recognize the rally phases. Successful traders track the reset periods with equal attention.

The current environment sits within another reset zone. These blocks follow a sequence: rally, distribution, slow decline, reset, then another rally.

Understanding this rhythm changes how traders approach positioning. Markets don’t move in straight lines during bull cycles.

Instead, they advance through predictable consolidation periods. Recognition of these phases helps separate short-term noise from longer-term trend development.

Technical Setup Points to Potential Base Formation

Current price action has returned to a major support band that previously acted as a floor. The market has repeatedly reacted around this zone in past cycles.

This area represents significant accumulation levels from earlier timeframes. Price behavior near established support often signals exhaustion of selling pressure.

Momentum indicators show complementary signals. RSI has trended downward for months and now sits at depressed levels.

While no single indicator guarantees reversals, compressed momentum after timed downtrends typically precedes shifts. Selling pressure appears to be reaching exhaustion points.

The convergence of time-based cycles and technical levels creates noteworthy conditions. When 120-day downtrends appear twice within the same cycle, they often mark capitulation windows.

Weak positions exit while value-focused buyers begin accumulating. This phase doesn’t guarantee immediate upside but shifts probability distributions.

Market structure suggests a transition from random downside to base building. Bitcoin’s stability could catalyze altcoin bid activity in coming weeks.

The panic phase appears complete based on historical cycle comparison. Patience becomes valuable during these periods as markets digest previous excesses and establish foundations for subsequent moves.

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