Opendoor (OPEN) Stock: What to Expect from Q4 Earnings Wednesday

TLDR

• Opendoor reports Q4 earnings Feb. 19, its first full quarter under new CEO Kaz Nejatian, who has implemented cost cuts and increased AI use
• Stock dropped 24% year-to-date after surging 1,800% in early 2025 during meme stock rally, now trading at $4.45
• Q3 revenue fell 34% year-over-year while home sales dropped from 3,165 to 2,568 units as company remains unprofitable
• Weekly homes under contract increased from 120 in late September to 303 by late January, showing early turnaround signs
• Wall Street expects Q4 loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $594 million, down from $1.1 billion last year

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) faces a critical test when it reports fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The digital real estate platform’s stock has tumbled 24% this year after a wild 2025 that saw shares rocket 1,800% from $0.51 to over $10 in less than three months.

Opendoor Technologies Inc., OPEN

The earnings call marks the first full quarter under CEO Kaz Nejatian, who took the helm during a brutal housing market. Investors want to see if his turnaround plan is working.

Nejatian has moved quickly to reshape the company. He cut costs by bringing work in-house that was previously handled by outside consultants. The CEO increased AI usage across operations and shifted focus toward transaction volume over margins.

The changes come as Opendoor’s iBuying model struggles. The company buys homes directly from sellers, makes repairs, then resells them. High mortgage rates have kept buyers on the sidelines even after the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates.

Third-quarter numbers showed the pain. Revenue dropped 34% year-over-year. Inventory fell from 6,288 homes to 3,319. The company sold just 2,568 homes, down from 3,165 a year earlier. Opendoor continues to operate at a loss.

Early Signs of Recovery

But there are green shoots. Nejatian launched a public dashboard where investors can track progress in real time. Weekly homes under contract tell the story. The metric jumped from 120 in late September to 230 by late October.

The trend continued. Homes under contract peaked at 303 during the last week of January. The general direction points up.

The dashboard also tracks product launches and workflow improvements. Opendoor rolled out escrow automation and expanded its ability to make offers in all 50 states. These moves could speed up transactions and reduce costs.

Wall Street expects a Q4 loss of $0.12 per share, compared to a $0.16 loss last year. Revenue is forecast at $594 million, down from $1.1 billion in the same quarter a year ago. The continued decline reflects the tough housing market.

Housing Market Conditions

Mortgage rates remain the wild card. Rates stayed elevated despite Fed rate cuts throughout 2024 and into 2025. But recent data suggests conditions might finally be shifting. Lower rates would bring buyers back to the market and help Opendoor’s model work better.

Nejatian’s turnaround could gain traction if the housing market improves. His cost cuts and operational changes position the company to capitalize on any upturn. The timing matters a lot.

Analysts maintain a Hold rating on the stock with two Hold recommendations over the past three months. The average price target sits at $5.00, implying 12.5% upside from the current $4.45 price. That modest target reflects uncertainty about the turnaround timeline.

The stock trades with a $4.2 billion market cap. Daily volume averages 71 million shares, though only 32 million traded on the most recent day. The 52-week range spans from $0.51 to $10.87, showing extreme volatility.

Inventory levels remain a key metric to watch. The drop from 6,288 to 3,319 homes could mean better inventory management or reduced buying activity. Wednesday’s call should clarify which factor drove the decline.

Gross margin stands at 8.01%, reflecting the thin profitability in home resale. Nejatian’s focus on volume makes sense given these tight margins. More transactions could offset lower margins per home.

The company’s transparency through its public dashboard marks a departure from typical corporate communication. Investors can see weekly contract data without waiting for quarterly reports. This approach builds trust but also increases pressure to show consistent improvement.

Opendoor expanded its offer capability to all U.S. states, opening new markets. The geographic expansion increases the addressable market but also spreads resources thinner. Execution will determine if the move pays off.

Weekly contract data hit 303 homes in late January, up from the 230 recorded in late October. The 32% increase over three months suggests momentum is building. Whether that momentum continues depends on mortgage rates and housing market conditions.

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