Analysts Watch BTC’s $78K Test as Retail Keeps Buying Dips

Key Highlights:

• Crypto analyst Evans tweeted that Bitcoin (BTC) is the average cost zone.
• According to the post by the analyst, holders usually sell pumps and do not buy dips.
• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted that retail users have increased their BTC/ETH holdings by buying dips.

According to a crypto analyst Evan, Bitcoin’s $78,000 mark is the average cost zone and this level has become a mental barrier more than a technical one. In his post on X today, February 16, 2026, he stated that this price zone is a “line in the sand” because a huge number of active traders bought Bitcoin for around $78,000. When BTC fell below that level, many of them were left holding losses.

According to the analyst, blockchain data shows that many traders bought Bitcoin around $78,000. Because Bitcoin is now trading way below this level, these traders are sitting on losses, even if they have not sold yet. These are called unrealized losses, the loss exist on paper, not because they have exited the trade.

When prices start to move up from here, these traders do not feel confident enough to buy more. Instead, they usually sell as soon as the price rises, this is because the traders want to reduce their losses or exit at break-even.

So rather than buying the dips and helping the price recover, these traders wait nervously and sell into small rallies (pumps). This move then adds a selling pressure whenever Bitcoin tries to move higher. Also, this makes the recoveries extremely slow and fragile, because every upward movement runs into people trying to get out. In short, fear and self-protection replace confidence, which keeps Bitcoin stuck below key levels.

Breakout or Breakdown?

For any recovery to take place, BTC must break and hold above this zone, as it will allow sellers to exhaust and buyers to step in confidently. Repeated rejection at $78,000 signal caution, keeping the risk of a deeper pullback alive.

At press time, the price of the token stands at $68,646.42 with a drop of 2.18% in the last 24-hours as per CoinMarketCap.

Retail Investors Hold the Line as Traders Turn Bearish

On the flip side, retail investors are quietly bullish. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted recently and stated that users are accumulating BTC and ETH during dips and they are holding them firmly. While leveraged traders sell, retail resilience is creating a potential demand floor near key price levels.

As of February 16, 2026, BTC is hovering around the $68,000 mark. Macro factors like regulatory whispers and ETF flows add layers, but $78,000 remains the sentiment litmus test.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Rebounds 4% as MVRV Nears Historic Reversal Zone