Gold trades at $5,008.40 as of writing, down 0.69% in the past 24 hours and slightly lower by 0.31% over the last week. The metal touched a 24-hour low of $4,974.27 and a high of $5,043.09, reflecting a tight but cautious range as liquidity thins.
Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,970s per ounce in early trade. Traders attributed the pullback to profit-taking after last session’s 2.5% jump and reduced participation as US markets closed for Presidents Day and Chinese markets shut for the Lunar New Year.
Profit-Taking Follows CPI Surprise
Friday’s US inflation data triggered the prior rally. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January, below the 0.3% forecast and December’s 0.3% gain. The softer reading fueled expectations that inflation pressures may ease, even as services inflation remains elevated.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said interest rates could decline, though he acknowledged persistent services inflation. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its March 18 meeting. However, traders still price in 75 basis points of cuts this year, with the first reduction projected for July.
With no fresh catalysts at the start of the week, traders locked in profits. Thin volumes amplified the move. Without strong participation from major financial centers, price swings often lack conviction.
Geopolitical Undercurrents Persist
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions linger in the background. Reports indicate that the US military is preparing for a possible extended operation against Iran if President Donald Trump authorizes action. Such developments often influence safe-haven flows.
However, gold has not reacted aggressively to these headlines. Instead, traders appear focused on technical levels and upcoming economic releases. Will geopolitics regain dominance, or will macro data dictate the next move?
Technical Structure Holds For Now
From a chart perspective, gold continues to trade within an upward channel that formed after a rebound from $4,400. The pattern shows progressively higher lows, reinforcing a constructive framework. This structure has supported price stability in recent sessions.
Yet momentum stalled near $5,100. Multiple breakout attempts failed at that level, introducing steady selling pressure. This repeated rejection creates tension between trend continuation and corrective risk.
Source: TradingView via X
Support levels of the February channel sit near $4,900, marking the first significant cushion if downside pressure increases. A deeper support zone appears around $4,640, which could attract attention if liquidation intensifies.
Analysts highlight last Friday’s high near $5,047 as a near-term pivot. Also, they now watch whether the price sustains above or below this area. Clear direction may emerge as volumes normalize.
Key Data Could Drive Next Move
This week brings several major US economic releases. On Wednesday, markets will parse the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes for policy clues. Thursday delivers updated unemployment claims data. Friday features Advance GDP, Core PCE inflation, and flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services.
Source: Forex Factory
These reports may clarify whether inflation slows sustainably and whether economic growth remains resilient. In turn, they could shape rate expectations and gold’s trajectory.
For now, gold consolidates within its established channel. The broader structure remains constructive as long as higher lows persist. However, resistance near $5,100 caps upside enthusiasm. Will buyers defend $4,900 decisively, or will sellers test deeper support? The coming sessions may provide that answer.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14646/gold-price-forecast-slips-below-5-000-markets-closed-for-presidents-day-and-lunar-new-year
