Bitcoin Price Faces Worst Q1 Since 2018 as Losses Mount

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price slid 22.3% year to date.
• First red January and February now possible.
• Analysts flagged $75,000 as recovery trigger.

Bitcoin headed toward its weakest first quarter in eight years after sliding 22.3% year to date. The asset started the year near $87,700 and recently traded around $68,000, putting it on pace for its sharpest Q1 decline since 2018. A negative close this month would also mark Bitcoin’s first consecutive January and February losses on record.

This downturn unfolded as Bitcoin price momentum weakened across risk markets. CoinGlass data showed that Bitcoin already logged losses in seven of the past thirteen first quarters, with 2018 recording a 49.7% collapse. That pattern placed current performance within historical volatility bands, though the scale revived comparisons with prior bear phases.

Immediate Market Reaction And Historical Context

CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin entered its fifth consecutive weekly decline after dropping 2.3% in the past 24 hours. That reaction mirrored broader risk aversion, which pressured digital assets amid global macro uncertainty. Earlier in the quarter, the asset fell 11.8% in 2025 and shed 10.8% in 2020, underscoring that Q1 often delivered weak returns.

Ether also struggled during the same period. Market data showed it declined 34.3% this quarter, marking its third-worst first-quarter performance historically. That comparison reinforced the broader correction narrative rather than an isolated Bitcoin breakdown.

Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said the pullback reflected a regular correctional phase rather than structural deterioration. He argued that institutional adoption and halving cycle dynamics continued to shape long-term expectations, even as short-term pressures intensified.

Technical Triggers And Range Reclaims

CrypNuevo posted on Feb. 15 that Bitcoin filled 48.5% of a prior weekly wick imbalance. He noted that the Bitcoin (BTC) price returned inside an old range that had previously held for seven months. That shift occurred because traders reacted to the partial wick fill and watched for confirmation signals.

He outlined two downside triggers: a drop back to the 50% wick-fill level or acceptance below a full wick fill. However, he also prepared for a surprise recovery if sentiment reversed sharply. The analyst said reclaiming $75,000 would signal a recovery attempt, while he monitored $64,000 and $59,000 for short-term reactions.

Chiefly, another trader on X warned that Bitcoin is prepared for a deeper slide toward $29,000 next week. He framed the move as the end of a bull trap and the start of an extended bear cycle. That reaction mirrored heightened pessimism as volatility compressed into the weekly close.

Correction Phase Or Structural Shift

CoinGlass records showed Bitcoin only posted two consecutive losing first quarters during 2018 and 2022 bear cycles. That context placed current losses within a narrow historical window. Meanwhile, the asset lost 10.2% in January and declined 13.4% so far this month, raising the probability of a rare back-to-back red start.

Daan Trades Crypto observed that the first quarter often produced volatile swings without dictating the rest of the year. He said historical price action showed that weak Q1 returns did not automatically translate into prolonged downturns. That view contrasted with the bearish projections circulating on social media.

Bitcoin price movements often diverge from prevailing sentiment. Traders, therefore, monitored whether consolidation inside the reclaimed range signaled base formation or further distribution. Liquidity remained thin ahead of a U.S. bank holiday, which some expected would temporarily reduce volatility.

Bitcoin now approached a technical inflection point as the month neared its close. A sustained move above $75,000 would shift short-term structure, while failure to defend range support could open the path toward deeper retracement levels. Market participants will watch whether Q1 closes in the red for the first time since 2018, as that outcome may frame sentiment for the next quarter without guaranteeing trend continuation.