Bitcoin RSI Drops Below 40 as $50K Level Looms

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin monthly RSI below 40 mirrors past cycle bottom conditions.
• Short-term holder Bollinger Bands reach most oversold level since 2018.
• Bitcoin open interest drops 55% from 2025 all-time high.

Bitcoin(BTC) traded at $67,984.09, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours and 1.3% over seven days. Daily volume reached $36.38 billion. Recent commentary from market analysts focuses on the monthly RSI, short-term holder Bollinger Bands, and a sharp drop in open interest.

Monthly RSI Signals Possible Cycle Zone

Ash Crypto posted, “$BTC to $50,000. Monthly RSI below 40.” He said this area could mark the 2026 bottom based on the four-year cycle. The monthly chart shows Bitcoin moving within a long-term rising channel that links the 2018, 2020, and 2022 lows.

The lower boundary of that channel sits near $50,000–$60,000. In prior cycles, monthly RSI readings below 40 appeared near major lows. In 2018 and 2022, similar momentum readings came before price stabilized and later advanced. Bitcoin now approaches that channel support as momentum weakens.

STH Bollinger Bands at Eight-Year Low

Quinten Francois wrote, 

 The short-term holder Bollinger Band metric recently reached levels last seen in November 2018. At that time, Bitcoin later formed a cycle low before starting a multi-year recovery.

The latest reading shows price pressing against the lower Bollinger Band. Extreme oversold conditions often occur during periods of heavy selling from short-term holders. Previous cycles show that such readings appeared close to exhaustion phases in the market.

Open Interest Drops 55% From ATH

Gerla stated, “Open Interest is down -55% from ATH.” Data shows open interest fell sharply from its 2025 peak, when total positioning approached the $3–4 billion range. The current drawdown sits between 50% and 60% from that high.

Similar contractions occurred in 2020 and 2022 during periods of broad deleveraging. Falling open interest reflects a reduction in leveraged positions across derivatives markets. Lower leverage levels often follow forced liquidations and position closures.

Market Structure Remains Within Channel

Bitcoin continues to trade within its long-term ascending channel. Analysts now watch whether price will test the $50,000 region in line with the four-year cycle structure. Momentum indicators and derivatives data frame the current setup.

Traders monitor support levels and RSI behavior as volatility continues. The market remains focused on how price reacts near channel support in the coming weeks.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.