Analyst Says Bitcoin Entering New Accumulation Cycle After Liveliness Peak Signals Trend Shift

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. published a recent market assessment indicating that the current bear cycle began after Bitcoin reached its all‑time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025, with Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness providing confirmation. According to the analysis, the metric reached its cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025, showing its typical lag behind price movements, and has since begun to decline. Historically, a reversal of this metric has marked the start of accumulation phases lasting between 1.1 and 2.5 years.

Liveliness reached its high point after the price peak and has now turned downward, which the analyst interprets as a shift from distribution to accumulation. The discussion centers not on whether a bear cycle has begun, but on its potential depth and duration.

Bitcoin Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness data shows the metric reversing from its December 2025 peak, indicating a transition toward accumulation. Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness represents the cumulative ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days created, adjusted to exclude internal transfers within the same entity. While bitcoin reached its all‑time high near $125,000 in October 2025, the metric continued rising for two additional months before peaking at 0.02676 in December, consistent with the behavior of cumulative indicators. Since then, the metric has been trending downward. As of February 17, 2026, Liveliness stands at 0.02669, with the 30‑day average at 0.02670, the 90‑day at 0.02672, and the 365‑day at 0.02622. The raw metric has already fallen below both the 30‑day and 90‑day averages, which now sit above it.

Two previous accumulation periods are visible in the historical data: the 2020 cycle, which lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 cycle, which extended for 2.5 years. Both began with the same pattern—a reversal from the metric’s peak followed by a sustained decline, with price weakening afterward. The current structure mirrors those earlier cycles.

The analysis concludes that, if the pattern repeats, the accumulation phase is likely to extend at least through the end of 2026 and more realistically into mid‑2027. A key confirmation signal would be the 90‑day average turning downward and falling below the 365‑day average at 0.02622. Until that crossover occurs, the possibility of a mid‑cycle reset with renewed upward momentum remains open.

Structural Demand May Temper Bitcoin’s Bear Cycle As Metrics Point To Ongoing Decline And Early‑Stage Accumulation

A comparison with the 2022 cycle notes that while Liveliness behaves similarly, the demand environment has changed. ETF inflows and corporate accumulation now provide structural support that was absent in 2022. This does not negate the bear‑cycle signal indicated by Liveliness, but it may reduce the severity or duration of the correction.

In order to confirm a full transition into accumulation, the analysis points to two conditions: continued decline in Liveliness over the next four to eight weeks without rising above the 30‑day average, and a downward reversal of the 90‑day average that breaks below the 365‑day average, similar to patterns observed in mid‑2022 and mid‑2020. Until these signals appear, the broader structure remains uncertain.

The analyst concludes that the December 2025 peak in Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness signaled the completion of the long‑term holder distribution phase. By that time, bitcoin had already declined 25% from its October all‑time high of $124,000, and losses have since widened to 45%. Historically, such reversals have preceded accumulation phases lasting between one and 2.5 years, and the current cycle appears to be in its early stages. A shift in outlook would require the 90‑day average falling below the 365‑day average alongside price stabilization above local lows. The primary factor that could disrupt the bearish structure is sustained ETF‑driven demand, which may alter the traditional cycle pattern and shorten the accumulation period.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $67,759, reflecting a 1.54% decline over the past 24 hours. The day’s high reached $69,903, while the low stood at $67,374, according to CoinMarketCap data. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.33 trillion, down 1.03% over the same period, with total market trading volume at $84.73 billion, representing a 9.74% decrease.

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