Palantir (PLTR) Stock: Michael Burry’s $46 Warning Shocks AI Investors

TLDR

• Michael Burry estimates Palantir’s fair value at $46 per share with a range between $21 and $146 based on fundamental analysis.
• Burry holds put options on PLTR but is not shorting the stock directly, maintaining a bearish stance on current valuation levels.
• Technical analysts project PLTR could fall below $100 with a potential target around $70 before finding sustainable support.
• Burry’s critique focuses on valuation disconnect, arguing the stock trades on leadership perception rather than business fundamentals.
• The analysis warns investors that Palantir’s AI-driven rally may not hold up under scrutiny of traditional financial metrics.

Michael Burry just delivered a harsh verdict on Palantir Technologies. The investor who famously predicted the 2008 housing collapse published a detailed analysis questioning the AI stock’s sky-high valuation.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

His conclusion? Palantir might be worth just $46 per share. That’s a jarring figure for investors who’ve watched PLTR soar through 2024 and 2025 on artificial intelligence hype.

Burry didn’t stop at one number. He outlined a valuation range from $21 to $146, emphasizing these aren’t standard Wall Street price targets. They represent different scenarios based on the company’s actual business performance versus market expectations.

The critique comes at a crucial moment. Palantir has emerged as one of the hottest names in AI investing. Its data analytics platform and government contracts have attracted enormous investor interest. But Burry argues that enthusiasm has pushed the price far beyond what fundamentals support.

Burry Holds Put Options While Warning on Valuation

Burry revealed he’s positioned bearishly through put options rather than direct short selling. This gives him downside exposure with defined risk limits. It’s a calculated bet that the stock will decline from current levels.

His analysis goes beyond spreadsheets. Burry examined Palantir’s corporate culture and leadership dynamics. He contends the stock trades on CEO Alex Karp’s aura rather than financial reality. When market pressure arrives, he believes that type of valuation will collapse.

Burry emphasized his critique isn’t personal. He’s analyzing the business, not attacking management. That matters because Palantir defenders often dismiss criticism as misunderstanding the company’s unique approach.

Technical Analysis Points to $70 Target

The bearish case gets support from technical analysis. Analyst Alex Dudov identifies PLTR in a corrective pattern with substantial downside risk ahead. The stock is testing the $100 level as a critical support zone.

Dudov’s research points to a potential target around $70 per share. That’s where institutional buyers might step in with conviction. Until then, the stock remains exposed to continued selling pressure.

The technical structure shows Palantir completing an impulsive rally before entering a multi-stage correction. This is typical behavior after strong advances. The market needs to discover where real demand exists at lower prices.

Traders should monitor the $100 threshold closely. A break below could accelerate movement toward the $70 zone. The stock is in price discovery mode, searching for a level that attracts sustained buying interest.

The valuation debate centers on one question: Can Palantir’s business fundamentals justify its current price? Burry’s $46 estimate considers revenue growth, margins, competition, and market opportunity. His wide range reflects uncertainty about future outcomes.

Even in optimistic scenarios, Burry sees limited support for current valuations. This creates tension for investors who bought the AI growth story. Do they hold through volatility or take profits and wait for better entry points?

Institutional investors appear willing to wait for lower prices before building positions. That lack of buying support at current levels maintains downward pressure on the stock.

Burry holds put options on PLTR while technical analysis suggests a potential decline to $70 per share.

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