SPY and QQQ revisit a familiar measured-move ceiling as weekly structure compresses

Since December 2021, both ETFs have followed a repeating expansion–reset rhythm. With price pressing the upper edge again, the focus shifts from prediction to confirmation: acceptance above the highs, or rejection and rotation back into range.

SPY and QQQ measured moves since December 2021: Structure repeats, price decides

The weekly charts for SPY and QQQ continue to tell a similar story: since December 2021, both have traded within a repeating rhythm of expansion legs higher, followed by reset pullbacks that tend to travel a comparable distance inside the larger structure. The result is a market that has not been random — it has repeatedly respected symmetry, especially at the outer edges of prior measured moves.

That symmetry is why the current area matters. Both ETFs are pressing back toward the upper boundary of the same long-running weekly framework. This is not a forecast that “a correction must happen,” but it is a reminder that, historically, when price reaches the edge of a repeated measured-move structure, the market often shifts into a decision zone: either it accepts higher value and continues, or it rejects the highs and rotates back through the range.

The key observation: The rhythm is shared, the beta isn’t

While the structure is similar, the personality differs:

• SPY tends to behave like the cleaner “core trend” proxy, often holding together longer during late-cycle compression.
• QQQ typically acts as the stress test. It stretches further during expansion phases, but it also tends to show fatigue first when structure starts to fail.

That distinction matters because it frames how traders and investors can read the same structural setup through two lenses: SPY for the broader market’s stability, and QQQ for the market’s sensitivity when positioning becomes crowded, or momentum begins to stall.

Why “time” often matters more than “distance” at the top edge

One of the most consistent behaviours near the top of a measured move is that the market doesn’t always reverse immediately. Instead, it often transitions into compression—a choppy, time-consuming zone where price repeatedly tests the highs, pulls back, and retests again.

This is where traders get trapped: not by a clean trend reversal, but by a range-building process that forces participants to pick a direction too early. In practical terms, the closer price is to the top of a repeating structure, the more valuable it becomes to focus on weekly closes and follow-through, rather than intraday noise.

Two outcomes worth tracking (without forcing a prediction)

From a structure-first perspective, the setup is straightforward. The market is effectively choosing between:

1) Acceptance/continuation

• Weekly closes hold firm near the highs.
• Pullbacks remain shallow and quickly repaired.
• Price spends more time above the prior ceiling than below it.

2) Rejection/rotation (reset behaviour)

• Repeated failures to hold strength into the weekly close.
• A weekly lower high forms after multiple attempts.
• Price begins spending more time back inside the prior range (distribution feel).

Neither outcome needs to be predicted in advance — the tape will confirm which one is developing.

The “tell” candle: What the weekly close is signalling

One simple but useful tell at major edges is the failed push: a week that trades higher but can’t hold those gains into the close (often leaving an upper wick and a weaker settlement). One candle doesn’t decide the trend, but repeated failed pushes at the same structural edge can be an early hint that the market is transitioning from expansion to rotation.

A measured-move reminder: Resets have been meaningful before

If the post–December 2021 pattern continues to rhyme, it’s reasonable to keep in mind that prior resets have not been small. The market has previously been willing to print pullbacks in the high-teens to low-twenties percent range during “reset” phases. That’s not a call for a decline — it’s simply context for what has been normal inside this structure.

Bottom line

SPY and QQQ are back at a familiar place on the weekly map: the upper edge of a measured-move framework that has governed price behaviour since December 2021. The highest-value question here isn’t directional. It’s structural:

• Are we seeing acceptance (price holding and building value above the ceiling)?
• Or are we seeing rejection (failed pushes, lower highs, and rotation back into range)?

Either way, the next few weekly closes should offer the clearest confirmation of whether this is healthy compression near highs or early distribution at the edge.