Bitcoin Enters Critical Support Zone as Long-Term Holders Start Selling

According to on-chain analytics platform Alphractal, Bitcoin is hovering around a key support level based on the average price paid by short-term holders. In past cycles, when price falls into this area, one of two things usually happens: either a local bottom forms, or the market enters a stronger selloff before long-term accumulation begins.

At the same time, another important signal is flashing.

Long-Term Holders Are Starting to Feel Pressure

The Long-Term Holder SOPR – a metric that shows whether long-term investors are selling in profit or at a loss – has just dropped below 1, currently sitting at 0.88.

When this indicator falls below 1, it means long-term holders are, on average, selling Bitcoin at a loss.

This has not happened since the final phase of the 2023 bear market.

Historically, when long-term holders begin realizing losses, it signals rising stress in the market. These are typically the most patient investors, so when they start selling under pressure, sentiment is clearly weakening. However, the situation is not extreme yet.

On a broader timeframe, the monthly average of the indicator still remains above 1, meaning most long-term holders are still in profit overall.

Not Capitulation – But Early Warning Signs

True bear market endings have typically been marked by much deeper loss realization, where selling becomes widespread and emotionally driven.

We are not there yet.

Instead, the current data suggests early-stage pressure rather than full capitulation. If Bitcoin stabilizes here, this zone could become a reset point before recovery. If selling intensifies, the market could move into a deeper correction phase.

For now, the message from on-chain data is clear: pressure is building – but surrender has not arrived.

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