Shiba Inu is at a crossroads. The meme coin has reclaimed monthly support at $0.00000629, but the recovery lacks conviction. Whale activity remains subdued, and the broader market structure still tilts bearish. The question now is whether SHIB can push past $0.00000700 before momentum fades.
The token has gained 31% from its cycle low of $0.00000500, recorded on February 6, 2026. That is a meaningful move. However, it has not been enough to erase the fifth zero from SHIB’s price, a psychological milestone the community has long targeted. Without sustained buying pressure from large holders, the current rebound risks running out of steam.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks capital flows among institutional and large-scale investors, was sitting in slightly negative territory at the time of writing. This is a warning sign. When price rises while CMF remains negative, analysts refer to the pattern as bearish divergence. It suggests that the upward move is not supported by genuine accumulation. For SHIB holders, this means the rally could be fragile.
If SHIB fails to convert the $0.00000700 level from resistance into support, sellers may regain control. The asset remains 92.58% below its all-time high of $0.00008845, reached on October 28, 2021. A return to those levels would require an astronomical gain that most analysts consider unlikely in the near term.
Futures Markets Show a Shift in Sentiment
Despite the cautious on-chain picture, derivatives markets are telling a different story. Over the past 24 hours, the weighted funding rate for Open Interest (OI) has flipped positive. This means short-sellers are now paying a premium to maintain bearish positions against bullish traders, a sign that market sentiment is tilting toward optimism, at least in leveraged markets.
The long-to-short ratio across exchanges stood at 1.02, a slim but notable edge for bulls. Binance users were the most aggressive on the bullish side, posting a daily long-to-short ratio of 1.71, according to CoinGlass data. This suggests retail traders are betting on further upside, even as institutional signals remain mixed.
Open Interest itself is worth watching. Rising OI alongside a positive funding rate typically signals fresh capital entering long positions. If this trend holds, it could translate into upward price pressure in the short term. However, leveraged markets can reverse quickly. A single large liquidation event could trigger a cascade of sell orders and push SHIB back toward the $0.00000500 support zone.
Supply Dynamics Add a Layer of Complexity
On the supply side, SHIB Army members have been moving significant quantities of tokens off centralized exchanges and into self-custodial wallets. This behavior generally reduces the liquid supply available for sale on trading platforms. When supply tightens while demand stays constant or increases, prices tend to rise.
Trillions of SHIB tokens have been relocated in recent weeks. The scale of these transfers reflects a community that is not rushing to sell. Long-term holders appear to be positioning for a future rally rather than cashing out at current levels.
The burn rate also plays a role. SHIB’s deflationary mechanism removes tokens from circulation permanently. While the pace of burns has been inconsistent, any acceleration could strengthen the supply crunch narrative and attract fresh buyer interest.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14697/shiba-inu-gains-31-from-cycle-low-but-faces-critical-0-00000700-resistance-test
