LINK Weekly Analysis Feb 18

LINK is consolidating at the $8.86 level with weekly sideways movement while the main downtrend maintains dominance; however, low RSI and positive MACD histogram give accumulation signals in the support zone. Under Bitcoin’s bearish supertrend structure, a cautious approach is necessary for altcoins.

Weekly Market Summary for LINK

Chainlink (LINK) spent the last week with 0% change in the $8.66-$8.95 range and exhibited a neutral outlook at $8.86 price. In the bigger picture, the market remains within a long-term downtrend; price continues to stay below EMA20 ($9.36) and the trend filter gives a bearish signal. Volume profile is stable at $163.47M level, momentum RSI 38.27 is near oversold but MACD shows a positive histogram. This week, strategic opportunities may form for position traders with the testing of critical supports for detailed LINK spot analysis. In the general context, the crypto market is under pressure from rising Bitcoin dominance; although LINK’s oracle network role preserves its long-term value, short-term volatility dominates.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Market structure points to a clear downtrend for LINK; on higher timeframes (weekly and monthly), the lower highs and lower lows formation continues. Price has declined nearly 70% from 2025 highs and the main trendline awaits a breakout at $10.65 resistance. With the trend filter remaining bearish, the moving averages cluster (EMA50 $9.80, EMA200 $11.20) has not yet matured for an upward crossover. This structure carries potential for transition from distribution phase to accumulation, but short bias remains dominant as long as the downtrend is intact. For portfolio managers, the $12.51 target remains speculative in the long-term horizon; risk management is critical.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

The current price level shows characteristics of an accumulation phase overlapping with strong supports ($8.25 and $8.67). Volume profile is supported by low-volume consolidation, which may indicate smart money accumulating positions. Distribution patterns (e.g., remnants of head & shoulders) are blocked at the upper band $9.21; lack of breakout can be interpreted in favor of accumulation. According to Wyckoff methodology, if a spring test occurs at $8.25, re-accumulation begins; otherwise, the markdown phase deepens. Weekly closes will confirm this phase.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, LINK is trapped in the $8.66-$8.95 range; RSI 38 shows divergence potential, MACD histogram is approaching the zero line. Out of 13 strong levels, there are 2 support/2 resistance confluences on the daily: $8.67 support aligns with EMA20. Price action is indecisive with doji and inside bars; bullish engulfing is anticipated but limited under BTC pressure. LINK futures market data shows negative funding rates, low short squeeze risk.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective, the lower band of the downtrend channel ($8.25) is being tested; 3 support/4 resistance confluences are strong. Price remains below weekly EMA20, preserving the trend structure, but sideways movement without volume spike signals accumulation. On the 3-day timeframe, no breakout at $8.67 resistance; confluence intensifies at $9.21. For long-term traders, a weekly close above $9.00 would be the first confirmation of trend change.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $8.2506 (70/100 score, multi-TF confluence), $8.6722 (66/100, volume node). Resistances: $9.2088 (79/100, EMA20+channel), $9.7150 (60/100, prior high). Breakout levels: below $8.25 triggers downside ($4.53 target), above $9.21 opens upside ($12.51). Inflection point at $8.86 pivot; if held, range trade; if broken, directional bias clarifies. Target R/R 1:2+ for position sizing.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Scenario

If it holds above $8.67, enter long position: First target $9.21 (R/R 1:2), stop $8.50. Breakout at $9.21 opens path to $9.72 and $12.51; partial profit at $10.00. BTC above $68k required for confirmation. Check detailed charts for LINK and other analyses.

In Bearish Scenario

On breakdown below $8.67, short: Target $8.25, then $4.53; stop $8.95. In favor of trend structure, keep leverage low. BTC below $66k supports bearish scenario.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $67,680 in downtrend; key supports $66,556-$62,910, resistances $68,117-$71,259. BTC supertrend bearish and dominance rising, pressuring altcoins like LINK (correlation ~0.85). If BTC breaks below $66k, LINK $8.25 test accelerates; recovery above $68k could trigger altcoin rally. Wait for BTC dominance below 55% for altcoin rotation.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week, monitor breakout from $8.67-$9.21 range; hold at $8.25 confirms accumulation, breakdown validates markdown. BTC movements and volume spikes will determine direction. Position traders, be patient at confluence levels, remain cautious in macro cycle down phase.