A $1.2T shift toward Bitcoin may be starting — and one grim index says altcoins may never rally

Bitcoin’s grip on the crypto market is tightening again, and the numbers behind that shift help explain why a broad basket of altcoins is unlikely to beat the top crypto.

Data from CoinMarketCap indicate that Bitcoin's dominance is edging upwards towards 60% of the total crypto market capitalization. In comparison, altcoins' dominance has been trending downwards in the current market cycle.

At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index reads 41, indicating a Bitcoin-led market rather than the broad rotation that typically lifts most tokens simultaneously. The numbers have remained below the 75-plus threshold that typically signals a broad-based rotation into smaller assets since last September

This indicates that while retail traders favor rotating Bitcoin profits into speculative tokens, they have had to contend with a bear market that has not afforded any asset the opportunity to shine.

In light of this, there has been little focus on altcoins. Instead, the market has been characterized by a different cycle where today's marginal buyers do not invest in obscure tokens because they are solely interested in Bitcoin's unique characteristics.

Institutional flows favor liquidity and safety

The most significant shift in cryptocurrency since the last classic altcoin season is the rapid growth of regulated infrastructure and institutional access points.

Bitcoin now has mainstream distribution mechanisms, such as spot exchange-traded funds and institutional custody products, designed for large allocators. These allocators prioritize deep liquidity, minimal slippage, and protection from headline risk.

Large capital allocators rarely deploy a scattered strategy across dozens of tokens. Instead, they purchase what clears their internal risk committees.

This usually means selecting the asset with the longest history, the deepest liquidity, and the clearest market positioning.

Even when institutional investors seek exposure to the broader cryptocurrency market, they typically begin with Bitcoin and expand only later.

Recent fund flow data illustrates a strong bias toward quality over speculative altcoins.

According to CoinShares weekly report, cryptocurrency investment products logged a fourth consecutive week of outflows. These outflows totaled $3.74 billion over four weeks, including $173 million in the latest week alone.

Bitcoin and Ethereum were the primary sources of these redemptions, with losses of $133 million and $85.1 million, respectively.

Concurrently, a handful of major alternative tokens saw inflows, with XRP gaining $33.4 million and Solana adding $31 million.

This selective flow indicates that investors are not chasing a broad altcoin rally. They are choosing a few liquid names while remaining highly defensive.

A historic imbalance in supply and demand

Altcoins face significant headwinds due to an unprecedented combination of intense selling pressure and substantial token dilution.

Data from CryptoQuant indicate that the cumulative buy-and-sell difference for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) stands at -$209 billion over the 13 months since January 2025. The last time demand matched supply was near zero in early 2025.

Since then, the market has moved strictly in one direction. This prolonged net selling on centralized exchange spot markets indicates a complete absence of institutional accumulation for smaller tokens.

The -$209 billion figure does not necessarily signal a market bottom. Rather, it simply means the buyers have vanished.

A major factor driving this collapse is the sheer volume of new assets.

A report from crypto wallet maker Tangem indicated that more than 120 million unique tokens had been created as of February 2025, compared with fewer than 500 tokens a decade earlier.

This shows that too many tokens are competing for a market share that has not expanded fundamentally. The dynamics render any potential recovery highly fragile and threaten the survival of low-cap tokens.

Moreover, some of these assets consistently schedule token unlocks, further compounding this issue.

Token unlocks add new supply on fixed dates, regardless of market sentiment. In fact, a Keyrock study indicates that 90% of these events exert negative price pressure, with declines often beginning approximately 30 days before the scheduled release.

Bitcoin has no scheduled dilution, making it a cleaner hold for investors seeking to avoid looming supply overhangs over a one-year horizon.

Trading volumes signal a flight to quality in this bear market

Market experts have noted that the cryptocurrency industry is in a bear market, which has pulled Bitcoin price within a range between $65,000 and $72,000.

During deep corrections or the late stages of bear markets, investors typically rotate their capital toward the flagship digital asset while abandoning altcoins.

Data from CryptoQuant indicate that this behavior is evident in trading volumes on Binance, the largest exchange in the market.

As Bitcoin moved back above $60,000, a notable change in the distribution of trading volume emerged.

On Feb. 7, Bitcoin trading volume on Binance regained dominance, accounting for 36.8% of total exchange volume. In comparison, altcoins represented 35.3% of the volume, and Ethereum accounted for 27.8%.

This number showed that altcoin trading activity has suffered the most during this downturn.

In November, altcoins accounted for 59.2% of Binance's trading volume. By Feb. 13, their share had fallen to 33.6%, representing an almost 50% contraction in activity.

This pattern of capital flight has appeared repeatedly during previous corrective phases, notably in April 2025, August 2024, and October 2022.

During periods of elevated uncertainty and market stress, investors naturally gravitate toward Bitcoin.

Altcoins trillion-dollar rotation to Bitcoin

Market experts have noted that the timeline for the end of the current bear market remains highly uncertain.

Yet, if historical patterns hold true, the next three to four months could trigger a massive capital rotation from the obscure tokens into BTC.

In this situation, analysts at CEX.io project that between $740 billion and $1.2 trillion in trading volume could shift from altcoins into Bitcoin.

In a conservative scenario, Bitcoin's volume share would increase by 5%-6%, bringing its total share to 46%. This assumes the total market volume declines by 10% to 15%.

However, an elevated scenario suggests an 8%-9% increase in Bitcoin's volume share, pushing it to 49% and resulting in a $1.2 trillion rotation.

This is because current market conditions closely mirror those of the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin's volume share rose by 13.5% over four months. Notably, A similar 13.6% increase occurred in mid-2018.

CEX.io analysts told CryptoSlate that while a full 13.5% jump is less likely now, given Bitcoin's current volume dominance of 40%, there remains substantial room for further consolidation.

According to them:

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