Intel (INTC) Stock: Price Drops as Nvidia-Meta CPU Deal Emerges

TLDR

• Intel (INTC) dropped 1.3% to $46.18 Tuesday with volume 52% below average.
• Nvidia’s expanding CPU partnership with Meta is raising fresh competition fears in the data center market.
• Q4 EPS beat at $0.15 vs $0.08 expected, but revenue fell 4.2% year-over-year.
• Wall Street consensus is “Reduce” with an average price target of $45.74.
• Major institutions including Vanguard and Capital World added to positions in Q4.

Intel shares slipped 1.3% to $46.18 on Tuesday, touching an intraday low of $45.46. Volume came in at 63.2 million shares — about 52% below the average session volume of 130.7 million — suggesting limited conviction behind the move.

Intel Corporation, INTC

The headline concern driving sentiment: Nvidia is deepening its CPU partnership with Meta Platforms. Meta is set to launch what’s being called the first large-scale Nvidia Grace-only CPU deployment in a data center. For Intel, which has long dominated that space, it’s an uncomfortable development.

Nvidia’s case to customers is simple — better performance per watt. As power availability becomes a growing constraint for data center operators, that efficiency argument is landing. It landed with Meta.

Mixed Fundamentals

Intel’s Q4 results, released January 22, gave investors something to work with on both sides. EPS came in at $0.15, topping the $0.08 consensus by $0.07. Revenue hit $13.67 billion, just above the $13.37 billion estimate — but still 4.2% lower than the same quarter a year ago.

Q1 2026 guidance was flat, and full-year analyst estimates project -$0.11 EPS. The company is betting on an AI-first PC strategy, targeting a scenario where one in two PCs become AI-enabled. The foundry push continues too, though analysts are watching closely for execution to catch up with the narrative.

What Analysts Are Saying

The sell-side isn’t rushing to upgrade. The current consensus rating is “Reduce,” with five Buys, 26 Holds, and six Sells. The average price target is $45.74 — slightly below where the stock is currently trading.

DA Davidson initiated with a Neutral and issued a “show-me” reset warning, saying Intel needs to demonstrate clear, repeatable execution before valuations hold up. Bernstein also stayed Neutral. Morgan Stanley lifted its target from $38 to $41. Evercore moved to $45. Rosenblatt kept its Sell with a $30 target.

A broader look at recent coverage puts the average target at $48.21, implying roughly 6% upside from current levels.

On the insider front, EVP April Miller sold 20,000 shares at $49.05 on February 2 — a 15% reduction in her position. EVP David Zinsner went the other direction, buying 5,882 shares at $42.50 on January 26.

Institutions added in Q4. Vanguard increased its stake by 3.5% to over 404 million shares. Capital World Investors lifted its position by 20.3%. Institutions collectively hold 64.53% of the stock.

Intel’s 50-day moving average sits at $43.42, with the 200-day at $36.12. Market cap is $230.67 billion.

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