$53 Billion Still In: Why Bitcoin ETFs Are Holding Strong While Crypto Prices Fall

TLDR

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold $53B in cumulative net inflows despite recent heavy outflows
• Inflows peaked at $63B in October 2025, before Bitcoin dropped ~47% from its $126,000 high
• Bloomberg’s original forecast was $5B–$15B in inflows, making this 3x the top estimate
• BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust became the fastest ETF ever to pass $70B in assets
• Bitwise analysts say institutional capital may be breaking Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have kept $53 billion in cumulative net inflows even as Bitcoin’s price has fallen roughly 47% from its all-time high of $126,000, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

Balchunas shared the data on X alongside figures compiled by fellow analyst James Seyffart. He described it as a net positive of $53 billion generated in under two years.

The inflows peaked at $63 billion in October 2025, before declining alongside Bitcoin’s price retreat. As of mid-February 2026, Bitcoin was trading near $66,500, after falling as low as $60,000 during a sell-off in late January and early February.

When US spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in early 2024, Bloomberg’s own projections put expected inflows at $5 billion to $15 billion. The $53 billion outcome is more than three times the top of that range.

That makes the product category one of the most successful ETF launches in US market history by early asset accumulation.

BlackRock Sets ETF Speed Record

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust set a specific record, becoming the fastest ETF ever to pass $70 billion in assets under management. It reached that milestone in under a year.

Bitcoin climbed to new all-time highs ahead of its April 2024 halving, breaking with historical patterns. ETF inflows accelerated through 2025 and peaked in October as Bitcoin pushed above $126,000.

Despite the price drop since then, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have been smaller than the price decline itself. That gap suggests a portion of institutional investors have chosen to hold rather than exit.

Debate Over Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Bitwise analysts Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen have argued that Bitcoin may be departing from its four-year cycle pattern. They point to the growing scale of institutional participation as the key reason.

They noted that major wealth platforms including Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch have expanded client access to Bitcoin products. They expect this pipeline of capital to grow through 2026.

Other analysts disagree, saying the 2025 bull run followed the same four-year rhythm as prior cycles and has now run its course.

A separate view holds that the cycle is simply stretching, shaped by a longer business cycle and shifting macro conditions.

Crypto market maker Wintermute observed that despite strong institutional ETF flows, Bitcoin lost retail attention through 2025 as investors moved toward other high-growth sectors.

Standard Chartered has identified $50,000 as a possible near-term price target before any recovery. CryptoQuant places the cycle floor at $55,000.

The post $53 Billion Still In: Why Bitcoin ETFs Are Holding Strong While Crypto Prices Fall appeared first on CoinCentral.