How Burkina Faso Mining Revenues are Reshaping the Sahel’s Economic Battlefield

• Burkina Faso mining defies insurgency to hit 94-tonne production. An in-depth analysis of Iamgold’s $165m spend, IMF revenue forecasts and the 2026 expansion boom.

Burkina Faso, a nation grappling with a debilitating Islamist insurgency and governed by a military junta that has ostracised itself from traditional regional blocs, is experiencing a mining boom that is fundamentally reshaping its fiscal reality and its geopolitical standing.

Latest strategic communications from mining investment companies, verified by IMF data and industry reports, paint a picture of an industry defying the security odds. As of early 2026, the Burkina Faso mining industry is no longer just a contributor to GDP; it has become the financial bulwark of a regime fighting for its survival, attracting hundreds of millions in new investment while walking a tightrope between resource nationalism and the need for foreign technical expertise.

Burkina Faso Gold Mining: The Fiscal Lifeline of the Junta

According to the International Monetary Fund‘s latest executive board assessment, released on February 18, 2026, Burkina Faso‘s economic resilience is startlingly robust. Despite the security crisis, real GDP growth accelerated to 5.0 percent in 2025 and is projected to hold steady at 4.9 percent in 2026.

The primary engine of this growth is gold mining. The IMF notes that “the supply response of artisanal mining to higher gold prices and mining sector reforms” has outweighed contractions in other sectors.

Supported by high global gold prices, the nation‘s external current account is projected to swing from a deficit of 3.5 percent of GDP in 2024 to a surplus of 1.1 percent in 2025, remaining in positive territory at 0.8 percent in 2026. This is a monumental shift for a country historically dependent on foreign aid and agricultural exports.

Total industrial gold production hit a historic high of 94 tonnes in 2025, a figure that has directly enabled the government of Captain Ibrahim Traoré to pursue fiscal consolidation. The IMF notes that the fiscal deficit remained well within the program objective of 4.0 percent of GDP in 2025, thanks largely to “higher revenues from gold mining”.

Canadian miner Iamgold lines up $165 million investment

While the junta in Ouagadougou has sought closer ties with Russia and withdrawn from regional trading bloc ECOWAS, the bedrock of its mining sector remains staunchly Western. In January 2026, Canadian giant Iamgold provided the most significant vote of confidence in the country‘s industrial future. The company announced a $165 million investment program for 2026 at its Essakane mine, the nation‘s largest gold operation.

This is not an expansion for the sake of growth; it is a defensive and strategic necessity. The funds are earmarked for critical waste stripping to access ore, the development of a new pit, and equipment replacement. The goal is to maintain production at a robust 400,000 to 440,000 ounces for the year.

This level of capital expenditure in such a high-risk environment signals that for major miners, the geology of Burkina Faso remains too lucrative to abandon. It is also a testament to the functionality of the 2024 revised mining code, under which the Burkinabè state now holds a 15 percent stake in Essakane, giving it a direct financial interest in the mine‘s success.

Orezone and West African Resources

Beyond maintenance, the pipeline for 2026 is defined by aggressive expansion. Vancouver-based Orezone Gold Corporation achieved a major milestone in December 2025, producing first gold at its new $80 million hard rock processing plant at the Bomboré Mine. The facility, which ramped up in early 2026, is a game-changer for the asset.

Patrick Downey, President and CEO of Orezone, confirmed that commercial production is expected imminently, marking “a major milestone” that will increase total gold output by 45 percent. Production guidance for Bomboré in 2026 is set between 170,000 and 185,000 ounces, a significant leap from the 118,746 ounces produced in 2024.

This expansion validates the company‘s strategy and its relationship with the state, particularly after Orezone felt compelled to issue a market update in September 2025 clarifying that the government had “reconfirmed… no intention to purchase an equity interest in the Bomboré Gold Mine,” allaying fears of nationalisation.

Meanwhile, West Australian-based West African Resources (WAF) is executing one of the most ambitious growth strategies in the region. Presenting at the Diggers & Dealers forum in August 2025, CEO Richard Hyde unveiled a 10-year outlook for the company‘s Burkina Faso assets. WAF expects to produce 4.8 million ounces of gold from 2026 to 2034, with production peaking at 569,000 ounces in 2029.

This is predicated on the successful ramp-up of the Kiaka Project, which poured its first gold in July 2025. Kiaka is expected to average 248,000 ounces annually over the next decade, with the mine plan extending to 2042. Simultaneously, the Sanbrado project is projected to average over 240,000 ounces per annum, bolstered by the introduction of the Toega underground mine. This long-term planning suggests that major miners see a pathway through the current instability.

The Service Sector Follows the Money

The scale of current activity is also generating massive contracts in the mining services sector, a key indicator of industrial health. In May 2025, Australian service giant Perenti secured $708 million (A$1.1 billion) contract from London-listed Endeavour Mining. The five-year contract covers underground mining services at the Mana complex and will contribute to earnings from fiscal 2026 onward.

This contract underscores a critical trend: even as miners are cautious, they are spending heavily on optimizing existing assets. The Mana complex, which produced nearly 150,000 ounces in 2024, is projected to deliver up to 180,000 ounces in 2025, and Perenti‘s expertise will be vital in sustaining those numbers.

Burkina Faso Mining Projected Revenues and the IMF’s “Resilience” Funding

The revenue story for 2026 is not just about ounces pulled from the ground, but how those ounces translate into macroeconomic stability. The IMF‘s approval of a new $124.3 million arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) is directly tied to the governance of the mining sector.

The IMF has made it clear that the “positive” outlook is contingent on the authorities “strengthening integrity in mining licenses processes”. The Burkinabè authorities have already implemented six out of eleven priority recommendations from a Governance Diagnostic Assessment, addressing a missed structural benchmark that had previously concerned the Fund.

Tax revenue from mining is projected to stabilize the central government‘s books. While total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is forecast to dip slightly to 17.5 percent in 2026, the overall current revenue remains robust at 19.9 percent of GDP. Crucially, total public debt is projected to fall from 57.2 percent of GDP in 2024 to 51.2 percent in 2026, driven by this revenue performance and spending discipline.

The Political Paradox: Resource Nationalism vs. Foreign Capital

The political environment in Burkina Faso presents a paradox that investors are navigating with care. The Traoré regime, which came to power via a coup in 2022, has explicitly identified gold as the country‘s most important export. It re-wrote the mining code in 2023 to secure larger royalty payments and has openly discussed increasing state participation in foreign-owned mines.

However, the actions on the ground suggest a pragmatic co-existence rather than outright expropriation. The state has taken its 10-15 percent stakes in mines like Bomboré and Essakane, but it has not moved to seize control. The reassurance given to Orezone that it would not force a purchase of equity suggests that the government understands its limits: without the technical expertise of companies like Iamgold, WAF, and Endeavour, the revenue spigot runs dry.

As Africa Confidential noted in its February 2026 analysis, the junta is eyeing increased revenues to fund its fight against an Islamist insurgency that is “growing stronger”. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) has warned that extremist organizations are “coalescing in Burkina Faso” and aim to “connect those revenue streams” through gold smuggling. This turns the mining industry into a direct strategic asset in the counter-insurgency effort.

Risk Management in the “Red Zone”

Despite the positive financial indicators, the risk environment remains severe. Think tanks like Johannesburg-based In On Africa (IOA) caution that “ongoing security challenges… can render Burkina Faso a dangerous environment to operate in, especially in rural areas where militants hold sway”.

Mines are largely in remote areas, requiring significant private security and coordination with the Burkina Faso Armed Forces. The displacement of populations due to the insurgency also puts pressure on local infrastructure and labor pools. Furthermore, the country‘s political isolation—exiting ECOWAS—complicates regional logistics and supply chains, though it has not yet deterred the hard commitments seen in 2025 and early 2026.

As Burkina Faso moves through 2026, the mining sector stands as the undisputed cornerstone of the economy. The IMF forecasts 4.9 percent GDP growth, driven by sustained gold production. The entry of new players and the expansion of existing ones, from Panthera Resources starting a feasibility study at the Cascades project (targeting 635,000 ounces) to the massive service contracts awarded to Perenti, point to an industry that is adapting to the “new normal” of insecurity.

However, the sustainability of this boom hinges on two factors: the trajectory of global gold prices and the state‘s ability to prevent the insurgency from infiltrating its most valuable asset. For now, the generals in Ouagadougou are betting that the glitter of gold can fund the guns needed to secure the nation‘s future. The international mining community, by virtue of its capital commitments, appears to be placing the same bet.

Read also: Burkina Faso expels top UN envoy amid damning child abuse report

The post How Burkina Faso Mining Revenues are Reshaping the Sahel’s Economic Battlefield appeared first on The Exchange Africa.