XRP's realized losses surge to $1.93B

Real‑world trading data shows that XRP has posted a massive $1.93 billion in realized losses this week. This is the largest spike in such losses since late 2022, according to on‑chain analytics firm Santiment.

The metric, which tallies coins sold below their original purchase price, surged to levels last seen roughly 39 months ago. This level has rapidly become a focal point for traders trying to gauge whether the market is entering an upcoming turning point.

If investors sell their coins at a price below their original purchase price, it’s called a realized loss. To put it simply, it also means traders are locking in losses rather than waiting for prices to rise. When this number climbs sharply, many would attribute it to market fear or frustration. 

Santiment’s numbers confirm that this week saw the highest realized losses since a similar spike in 2022, totaling $1.93 billion. The above leap occurred before XRP rose by 114% over the next eight months. Thanks to that historical trend, many traders are now keeping a close eye on it. 

Sized realized losses are commonly tied to a common problem that analysts have dubbed “capitulation.” This is when less bullish stockholders sell their positions amid sustained price declines. But this downside can also reduce selling pressure. By the time most likely sellers have moved out of the market, fewer sellers are available to reduce prices. 

In the past, severe spikes in realized losses have been observed around market bottoms for many cryptocurrencies. And while that doesn’t guarantee a rebound, it does explain why the current data has generated so much interest. 

Profit-and-loss numbers, Santiment said, can also be useful for monitoring market emotional extremes.

Analysts share bold price forecasts

Although realized losses signal pessimism in the short term, many analysts maintain their focus on the long-term price potential. A few estimates reference past cycle patterns, meaning that each downturn sets the stage for higher lows in the next cycle. 

As the evidence is released, several crypto analysts have aired their views on XRP’s price. CryptoBull analyst has issued some very aggressive short-term targets: $13 in March, $27 in April, and $70 in May. Their estimates center on three-month price momentum.

Egrag Crypto, another analyst who has taken a longer perspective by analyzing past market cycles. He cited XRP’s cycle bottom at $0.10 in 2020 and $0.28 in 2022. That is a 2.8-times increase between cycle lows.

However, not all forecasts are optimistic. Several institutions have altered their targets as market conditions shift, and many commentators maintain that whale movements and exchange flows continue to shape short-term pricing. Yet even today, recent events still frame XRP’s future. Forecasts, for example, in the long term often take into account how XRP might benefit from greater institutional integration and increased use of its currency in payments or asset settlements.

Institutional developments help stabilize XRP

Even with the hefty realized losses, XRP has proven relatively strong in the short term. XRP was trading at $1.44 at the time of publication, up 1.55% in the last 24 hours.

But it has been down 25.12% in the last month. Its latest move came as the crypto market rebounded, with Bitcoin leading gains. Institutional developments could also underpin sentiment. 

Japan’s SBI Holdings recently launched a ¥10 billion on-chain bond issuance worth around $64.5 million. What’s also interesting is that the bond’s investors are rewarded in XRP, providing another real-world example of how a token could be used. 

Elsewhere in Europe, banking giant Société Générale introduced its euro-backed stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible, on the XRP Ledger as part of a multi-chain strategy.

Also, XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted three consecutive weeks of net inflows, although the speed of new investments is down from previous weeks.

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