SOL Technical Analysis Feb 22

SOL is being crushed under the pressure of the downward trend while testing the critical support line at 85.40$; however, are the emerging bullish signals in MACD opening the door to a possible recovery?

Market Outlook and Current Situation

Solana (SOL), as of February 22, 2026, is trading at 85.40$ and showing a slight decline of -0.12% in the last 24 hours. The daily range is stuck between 84.73$ – 86.72$, with trading volume at a relatively healthy level of 1.84 billion$. The overall market trend continues downward; SOL remains below EMA20 (89.75$) and is giving short-term bearish signals. This situation can be seen as a reflection of the uncertainty in the broader crypto ecosystem, as Bitcoin’s similar downtrend is putting extra pressure on altcoins.

Market-wide volume stability is currently limiting the risk of a sudden collapse, but examining SOL’s performance in recent weeks, 13 strong level confluences stand out on the 1D timeframe: 2 supports and 4 resistances on 1D, 2S/1R on 3D, and 2S/4R on 1W. This multi-timeframe alignment shows that the price is not moving randomly but is in structural consolidation. While SOL’s ecosystem news is quiet, reviewing SOL spot analyses reveals that liquidity flows remain weak. Investors are questioning whether this silence is a sign of the calm before the storm.

From a long-term perspective, the correction SOL experienced after its 2025 rally signals a decrease in overall sector risk appetite. The 1.84 billion$ volume level confirms limited speculative buying, and a drop below 84$ could trigger a deeper pullback. Market participants are watching SOL’s direction alongside the Fed’s interest rate decisions and macro data; as the delay in altcoin season negatively impacts high-beta assets like SOL.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

SOL’s most critical support zone is positioned at 84.8860$, standing out as an extremely strong holding point with a 77/100 score. The price’s decline to 84.73$ in the last 24 hours indicates this line is being tested; if broken, the next strong support at 79.5304$ (65/100 score) will come into play. These two levels create confluence on 1D and 1W timeframes, preparing ideal ground for a potential bottom formation. According to historical data, SOL has experienced average rebounds of 15-20% at these supports; however, under the current downtrend, there is a risk of holding without volume.

In multi-timeframe analysis, additional supports from the 3D timeframe reinforce these zones. Investors should be alert for a daily close below 84.8860$, as this could trigger an accelerating sell wave toward 79$. These supports are also being monitored as long/short liquidity pools in the SOL futures market.

Resistance Barriers

The short-term first resistance stands out at 86.6731$ (76/100 score); this level, the 24-hour high, is the first hurdle the price must overcome for an upward breakout. Stronger barriers follow above at 91.3046$ (60/100) and 108.1200$ (64/100). The Supertrend indicator drawing resistance at 103.01$ makes this area extra critical. 4 resistance confluences on 1D form a ceiling limiting upward movements.

These resistances are also confirmed on the weekly timeframe, and SOL could gain momentum toward 91$ if it breaks above EMA20 (89.75$). However, under the current bearish Supertrend, it is clear these barriers will not be easily overcome; volume increase is essential for a breakout.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) at 38.55 is approaching oversold but still lingering in the neutral-bearish zone; this indicates selling pressure may continue but also signals proximity to a bottom. The positive histogram formation in MACD is noteworthy; it carries potential for bullish divergence within the bearish trend and points to momentum slowly starting to turn. While this divergence is promising for short-term recovery, remaining below EMA20 preserves the short-term bearish bias.

While Supertrend gives a bearish signal, ADX (average directional index) shows trend strength is weakening; this increases the likelihood of sideways consolidation. RSI rising to 42 on 3D confirms overall momentum stabilization across multiple timeframes. Looking at the volume profile, carried volume supports the downtrend, but a MACD crossover could open a window of opportunity for traders waiting for it. Overall trend strength is moderate; a direction change seems difficult without a sudden catalyst.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

From a risk/reward perspective, the bullish scenario points to a 117.7063$ target (31 score), while the bearish side forecasts a deep correction to 45.4027$ (22 score). Calculated from the current 85.40$, upside potential is 38%, downside 47%; this slightly favors a short bias but is balanced by the MACD bullish signal. For risk management, long positions with a 84.8860$ stop-loss can be considered targeting a breakout above 86.67$; conversely, shorts should wait for a break below 86.67$.

Overall outlook is cautious: While downtrend dominates, rotation to 91$ is possible if support holds, but bearish targets are more likely under BTC pressure. With low volatility, scalping opportunities may increase in the SOL spot market. Investors should size positions keeping R/R ratio above 1:2; breaks in market structure will be the main triggers.

Bitcoin Correlation

As an altcoin exhibiting high correlation with Bitcoin (%0.85+), SOL is directly pressured by BTC’s downtrend. BTC at 68,216$ shows a similar picture with -0.03% decline in 24 hours; its bearish Supertrend is a red alert for altcoins. BTC’s critical supports are at 67,522$, 64,323$, and 60,000$, while resistances are at 68,219$, 71,039$, and 74,487$. If BTC drops below 67.5k, acceleration to 79$ in SOL is inevitable; conversely, if BTC breaks 71k, SOL could rise to 91$.

This correlation makes it essential for SOL traders to monitor BTC dominance; an increase in dominance could trigger altcoin sales. SOL rally remains limited without a BTC trend change; a 60k BTC scenario could drag SOL to 45$.