AVAX Technical Analysis Feb 22

AVAX is testing the critical support zone at 8.88 dollars with RSI at 37.45 signaling oversold, but MACD with positive histogram carries recovery potential; this situation makes both bullish and bearish scenarios possible.

Current Market Situation

AVAX is trading at the 8.88 dollar level with a 5.33% drop in the last 24 hours, and the daily range stayed between 8.87-9.45 dollars. Volume is at a moderate level of 172.28 million dollars, while the overall trend is under downward pressure. Technical indicators show RSI at 37.45 near the oversold region, which could pave the way for a potential rebound. Although the MACD shows a positive histogram formation as a short-term bullish signal, the short-term outlook remains bearish as the price stays below EMA20 (9.44 dollars). The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and the 10.66 dollar resistance level stands out. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 7 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/0 resistance on 1D, 2 supports/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. The main support is at 8.66 dollars (strength score 76/100), while a strong resistance level is not yet prominent. These mixed signals create a crossroads that market participants should watch closely.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, the 8.66 dollar support must hold strongly first, followed by an upward reaction buy from there. The price breaking above EMA20 (9.44 dollars) with increased volume could invalidate the short-term bearish trend and trigger bullish momentum. RSI rising toward the 50 level and MACD histogram expansion would support this scenario. The Supertrend switching from bearish to bullish signal (close above 10.66 dollars) would be critical confirmation. With 1D and 3D supports coming into play in MTF, this move could gain speed if overall market sentiment improves. Look for significant volume increase and candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing) for confirmation; without these, the scenario remains weak. The invalidation of the bullish move occurs with a drop below 8.66 dollars.

Target Levels

First target is Supertrend resistance at 10.66 dollars, followed by 11.7050 dollars as the main target considering MTF resistances (score 26). With stronger momentum, extension toward 1W resistances is possible, but volume and RSI divergences should be monitored at each step. The risk/reward ratio looks attractive from current levels, but always protect with stop-loss.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by the 8.66 dollar support breaking with volume; a close below this level wipes out short-term supports and accelerates bearish momentum. Staying below EMA20, Supertrend bearish signal strengthening, and RSI dropping below 30 increase risks. Increased selling pressure in volume, bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., shooting star), and potential MACD divergence loss reinforce this scenario. In MTF analysis, the 3 resistances on 1W and the overall downtrend are supporting factors. Macro factors like Bitcoin weakness could also act as a trigger. The scenario is invalidated by the price moving above 9.44 dollar EMA20.

Protection Levels

First protection level after 8.66 dollar break is the next MTF supports, with the main target at 5.2897 dollars (score 22). Lower levels bring in 3D and 1W supports, but liquidity hunts pose high risk in rapid drops. These levels play a critical role in position management, and risk/reward calculations should always be made.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision-making levels are 8.66 dollar support and 9.44 dollar EMA20 resistance; holding above 8.66 with volume breakout signals upside, while dropping below confirms downside. Confirmation signals include RSI crossing 50, MACD histogram expansion, volume spikes, and daily/4-hour closes. MTF alignment (e.g., 1D support hold with 3D resistance approach) determines scenario strength. Traders can strengthen their own analysis by following early invalidation criteria in both directions. Check detailed data on the AVAX spot market page and AVAX futures.

Bitcoin Correlation

AVAX shows high correlation with Bitcoin; BTC is currently in a downtrend around 67,584 dollars with Supertrend bearish. If BTC breaks 67,535 dollar support, extra selling pressure could form on AVAX, weakening altcoins toward 64,437 dollars. Conversely, if BTC breaks above 68,052 dollar resistance (70,642 target), the AVAX bullish scenario strengthens. BTC dominance increase is negative for AVAX, while dominance decrease has a positive effect. Key BTC levels: Supports 67,535-64,437-62,910 dollars; Resistances 68,052-70,642-74,487 dollars. AVAX traders should prioritize monitoring BTC movements.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Critical crossroads for AVAX: Hold at 8.66 dollars signals upside, break signals downside; follow RSI, MACD, and volume confirmations. MTF levels and BTC correlation complete the big picture. Monitoring points: 8.66/9.44 dollar breaks, RSI 50 cross, volume changes, and BTC 67.5k test. Traders should evaluate these scenarios with their own risk management. Market is volatile; check our platform for continuous updates.