TON Technical Analysis Feb 22

TON is approaching critical support levels in a squeezed market environment around 1.34 dollars, with the short-term downtrend maintaining its dominance; however, the positive histogram in MACD indicates a possible momentum shift.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

TON’s current situation observed on the daily chart is taking shape at the 1.34 dollar level with a slight 0.52% decline over the last 24 hours. The 24-hour trading range narrowing to the 1.31-1.35 dollar band shows reduced volatility, while trading volume is at moderate levels of 33.99 million dollars. The overall market trend continues downward, with failure to stay above EMA20 (1.40 dollars) reinforcing short-term bearish pressure. In this environment, despite TON’s fundamental advantages like Telegram integration, macroeconomic uncertainties and Bitcoin’s downward movement are pressuring altcoins.

In recent weeks, TON has been rejected from the 1.50 dollar resistance zone and is moving within a downward channel. The lower band of this channel around 1.32 dollars is currently being tested, and breakout scenarios will determine the market’s direction. Decreasing volume indicates that buyers have not yet entered, while the general crypto market being crushed under rising BTC dominance increases pressure on altcoins like TON. Nevertheless, even under the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal, the price’s attempt to hold the 1.30 dollar main support may signal the formation of a resilient base. In this context, TON spot analyses are critically important for investors following them.

Among factors affecting TON’s performance market-wide, ecosystem growth stands out, but calm news flow is limiting volatility. Daily candle closes are evolving from bearish engulfing formations to doji-like indecision, which can be interpreted as consolidation before a trend change. The short-term outlook requires caution against closes below 1.34 dollars, while upward tests can be expected with volume increase.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

Support Regions

TON’s main support regions are concentrated at levels showing strong confluence across multiple timeframes (1D/3D/1W). The most critical support stands out at 1.3205 dollars (score: 73/100); this level overlaps with the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% from recent lows on the daily chart and forms a strong base according to volume profile. If broken, the next target at 1.2787 dollars (score: 69/100) will come into play, which aligns with EMA50 on the weekly timeframe. Below these supports, the 1.20 dollar psychological level could trigger a deeper correction, but the current MTF confluence (total 10 strong levels: 2S on 1D, 1S on 3D, 3S on 1W) suggests a high probability of holding.

The strength of support regions stems from being tested multiple times in the past; for example, 1.3205 bounced twice in the last month, proving its reliability. Investors should look for volume increases and long-wick candles at these levels, as they may carry reversal signals. For those monitoring these supports in the spot market, TON spot trades may offer strategic opportunities.

Resistance Barriers

On the resistance side, the strongest barrier is positioned at 1.5376 dollars (score: 75/100); this level overlaps with Supertrend resistance, limiting upward movements. Immediately below it, 1.3415 dollars (score: 66/100) is a short-term test point, while 1.4121 dollars (score: 66/100) represents EMA20 and channel upper band confluence. Breaking these resistances on the daily chart requires strong volume and bullish candle closes; otherwise, the price may continue to squeeze around the 1.34 dollar pivot.

The strength of resistances is fueled by MTF distribution: 1D (3R), 3D (1R), and 1W (2R). A breakout above 1.5376 opens the door to the bullish target of 1.7732 (score: 25), while failure reinforces the current downtrend. Those targeting these levels in futures can evaluate leveraged positions via TON futures.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) is hovering in the neutral-bearish region at 40.70, and not approaching the oversold threshold (30) indicates the trend is not exhausted. While this value reflects short-term weakness, no divergence formation is observed yet, signaling the downtrend may continue. In MACD, the positive histogram expansion is noteworthy; as the signal line crossover approaches, it carries potential for a bullish momentum shift. These conflicting signals summarize the market’s indecision and show weakening trend strength.

EMAs are in bearish alignment (price below EMA20) and Supertrend gives a bearish signal, while ADX (average directional index) around 25 confirms a sideways trend. Although the overall trend is downtrend across multiple timeframes (1D bearish, 1W neutral), the positive growth in the MACD histogram should be monitored as a reversal warning. With volume oscillators at low levels, trend strength is limited; a sudden volume surge combined with MACD crossover could create upward momentum.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

Risk/reward ratios calculated from current levels appear attractive at around 1:2.5 in the bullish scenario (target 1.7732), while carrying 1:3 risk for the bearish target of 0.8993. Short positions are advantageous under downtrend dominance, but long opportunities may arise if supports hold. With low volatility (ATR 2.5%), sudden BTC movements increase risk; stop-losses should be positioned below support (1.31) and above resistance (1.36). The overall outlook is cautiously bearish: consolidation if 1.32 support holds, deep correction if broken.

In the positive scenario, a MACD bullish crossover tests 1.41 resistance; in the negative, a drop to 1.27 is likely. Risk management is critical; in uncertain markets, portfolio risk should not exceed 1-2%. This analysis provides a professional framework while emphasizing individual DYOR.

Bitcoin Correlation

TON exhibits high correlation with BTC (0.85+), directly affected by BTC’s downtrend; with BTC at 67,624 dollars down 1.30% nearing the 67,039 support test, pressure on TON increases. BTC’s Supertrend bearish signal is a red flag for altcoins; if BTC breaks 67,039 (followed by 64,350 and 60,000), TON could be pulled to 1.27 support. Conversely, if BTC breaks 68,024 resistance (targets 70,570 and 74,487), bullish momentum triggers in TON, starting movement to 1.53 resistance.

Rising BTC dominance reinforces TON’s relative weakness, while BTC finding a base prepares the ground for an altcoin rally. BTC levels to watch: supports 67,039/64,350/60,000; resistances 68,024/70,570/74,487. TON investors should prioritize the BTC chart.