Trump’s 15% global tariff threatens Philippines’ export recovery — analysts

By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

THE United States government’s plan to impose a new 15% tariff on imports may dampen the Philippines’ export recovery and disrupt supply chains, according to analysts.

“Under a 15% tariff, there might be a disruption in the supply chain, because other countries might negotiate or diverge [to other markets],” Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. said in a phone call.

“Unfortunately, our competitors here in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) are supported by their governments, but we aren’t,” he added.

Mr. Ortiz-Luis said the Philippine government must resume negotiations with its US counterparts to ensure exports remain competitive.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said the new tariffs could dampen export recovery, especially for electronics, garments, and agricultural sectors.

“The renewed threat of a 15% global tariff signals that protectionist risks remain and could dampen export recovery if implemented, especially for semiconductors and intermediate goods integrated into US supply chains,” he said in a Viber message.

US President Donald J. Trump said he wants to impose a new 15% duty on US imports from all countries, starting Tuesday, Reuters reported. (Read related story “Asian economies weigh impact of fresh Trump tariff, uncertainties” on S1/11).

This after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program, ruling that Mr. Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed higher tariffs under an economic emergency law.

Government officials emphasized that the US remains an important trading and investment partner.

“We will continue to engage with (the US). A stable and predictable arrangement with the US will be very beneficial to our stakeholders,” Trade Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty said in a Viber message.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go earlier said that the majority of the country’s exports — like semiconductors and key agricultural goods — were already exempted before the US Supreme Court’s ruling.

The US has long been the Philippines’ biggest export market. From January to December 2025, the value of Philippine exports to the US stood at $13.44 billion.

“We don’t know under what authority he (Mr. Trump) will impose those tariffs, and if these will last. We will have to wait until the dust settles to properly assess the impact of his new universal tariffs,” Foundation for Economic Freedom President Calixto V. Chikiamco said in a Viber message.

Reuters reported the new US tariffs are grounded in a separate but untested law, known as Section 122, that allows tariffs up to 15% but requires congressional approval to extend them after 150 days.

Foreign Buyers Association of the Philippines President Robert M. Young said its members have been resuming talks with its US buyers.

“We have survived, for the last eight months, the US’ 19% tariff. So, I think we have to just go on with what we are doing, and we’ll try our best to just lower our price to be competitive with other ASEAN nations,” he said via telephone.

Mr. Trump in July last year slapped a 19% duty on goods from five ASEAN members — the Philippines, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.

“In the meantime, we are preparing already for our expansion and our additional orders. We are keeping our fingers crossed that we will be given the best deal that we can get,” Mr. Young said.

Reacting to the US Supreme Court’s decision, Mr. Young called it a “much-needed boost for Philippine industries,” noting that it may contribute to local job creation.

To further support Philippine exporters, the government should also focus on improving infrastructure and ease of doing business, he said.

The Philippines should also leverage its membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and strengthen ties with its ASEAN partners by positioning itself as an alternative production base, Mr. Rivera said.

“At the same time, exporters should diversify markets and upgrade value-added production to reduce vulnerability to unilateral tariff actions and global policy swings,” he added.

Mr. Chikiamco said the country’s potential inclusion in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would help boost market access.

The CPTPP comprises Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom. The Philippines in November last year formally applied to join the trade bloc.